Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

So there is a breakthrough but not a total collapse yet. Perhaps it is time for an amphibious operation at the rear of the Axis forces defending the way to Thessaloniki! @Lascaris is the German Panzer division in the Macedonian front near full strength or is it a division just in name? If the answer is closer to the latter then perhaps a small amphibious operation will be the solution. I guess the front resembles smt like the crude map below and the operation I'm proposing is noted with the orange arrow.
The Germans start the battle with a bit over 200 tanks and assault guns (211 to be exact) with the Bulgarians having 60 more. So 10th Panzer should be starting operations reasonably close to full strength. Of course the Allies are now to the southern end of the Monastir gap, there is pretty passable ground without very many obstacles... at least by Balkan standards going all the way up to Monastir and Prilep. And the Allies have 3 armoured divisions that each of them individually start the battle with as many tanks as the entire Axis force in Macedonia. The main concern about an amphibious assault up the Macedonian coast is whether the Allies have sufficient landing craft for one. In addition to OTL Greek yards are churning landing craft at a priority so between that and additional Greek merchantment turned to assault transports by early 1944 there should be about two brigades worth of landing capacity in the Mediterranean in addition to OTL...
The offensive seems to be going quite well and considering the germans are moving their staff back from thessaloniki I think thessaloniki will be attacked soon which is a good thing.
I'll note that we've seen a German railway officer getting complaints from an SS officer of colonel rank that he's falling behind on train shipments to... Poland. After said SS officer apparently oversaw similar shipments from Constantinople. I would say that the Germans making these shipments from Thessaloniki is anything but good news...

The Italian front is also going quite better than otl I feel.
The Allied timetable there is roughly a month ahead of OTL and the Italian co-belligerent army will likely be rather more important given the much larger number of combat troops in the Balkans that escaped the Germans...
 
So there is a breakthrough but not a total collapse yet. Perhaps it is time for an amphibious operation at the rear of the Axis forces defending the way to Thessaloniki! @Lascaris is the German Panzer division in the Macedonian front near full strength or is it a division just in name? If the answer is closer to the latter then perhaps a small amphibious operation will be the solution. I guess the front resembles smt like the crude map below and the operation I'm proposing is noted with the orange arrow.
Too risky. Too close to Thessaloniki
 
Too risky. Too close to Thessaloniki
The big issue is IMO shipping. You'd likely need something in the order of 2-3 divisions IMO. That is on the scale of Anzio. Now smaller scale landings at say Platamon or Litochoro to turn the Bulgarian position on the Olympus may well make sense. And said positions or at least the Bulgarian supply would be pretty vulnerable to naval bombardment, allied battleships and cruisers off the coast would have a field day. Which in turn the Bulgarians and Germans not being idiots means they'd need coastal artillery to protect said vulnerable coast. Of course said artillery needs to be found somewhere...
 

Serpent

Banned
@Lascaris I was wondering about the ITTL fate and current situation of several leading non-communist Greek figures that involved in the resistance against the Axis in OTL, such as e.g. Anton Fosteridis (Tsaous), in his case I'm wondering where he and his family decided to settle at once they were expelled from Pontus, during the ITTL population exchanges. If they settled at Drama, he would probably be fighting against the Bulgarian occupiers, but if they decided to settle in western Anatolia and/or Eastern Thrace, then he would probably be once again be fighting a guerilla campaign against the Turkish forces that occupied his new home.

The reason I'm wondering is that we don't really have that much insight as to what has happened/is happening in the occupied areas of Hellenic Anatolia. And unlike the Balkan parts of Greece, we don't really have a historical example to approximate how the resistance would be like in Anatolia. Not just for this specific resistance leader, but also in general, I'd be interested to know more about the resistance in Anatolia/Thrace against the Turkish occupying forces, especially now that several parts of Anatolia have been liberated by the Hellenic Armed Forces.
 
Part 129
Rome, September 7th, 1943

Roberto Farinacci publicly proclaimed the establishment of the Italian Social Republic and that "true Italy" was rejoining the war on the side of Germany and Japan. Mussolini being so inconsiderate as to die in an airplane crash thus becoming unavailable as a puppet had delayed German plans but had not stopped them. Farinacci might be no Mussolini but was a loyal Nazi who had been assigned to implement the Italian racial laws against Italy's Jews back in 1938. He would do to head a Nazi collaborationist government for the Germans to pretend they were not outright occupying Italy but Italy was still fighting by their side.

North of Kozani, Macedonia, September 8th, 1943


Panzergrenadiers supported by a battalion of Panzer IVs and brand new Löwe tanks, Skoda's T-25 design [1], counterattacked pushing the New Zealanders back as 10th Panzer was thrown into the fray in an attempt to stem the Allied tide.. But soon the Kiwis, would attack again reinforced by the 3rd Royal Tank Regiment driving the Germans back once more. 10th Panzer would. And as soon as the battle was over, engineers would swarm over the knocked out T-25s that had been encountered in battle for the first time. Allied technical reports would find the newly encountered machine roughly on par with the Panzer IVs and the Allies own Shermans but not as dangerous as the Panther and Tiger tanks already encountered in Greece and Italy. Why the Germans had chosen to put one more tank design, only slightly superior to the latest Panzer IV variants into production left most of the Allied analysts scratching their heads in perplexion...

Epirus, September 8th, 1943

Cheimarra was finally liberated by the Greek VI Infantry Division. To its east the VIII Infantry Division was advancing along the Aoos/Vjose valley with the IV Infantry Division being the eastermost Greek division in the front. Epirus was getting perhaps the least attention by both sides. But this didn't make the fighting in the mountains any less vicious for the forces involved.

Brindisi, September 9th, 1943

The congress of the Italian Republican party had been, at the very least acrimonious. But in the end the faction supporting participation to the Comitato di Liberatione Nationale which included Garibaldi had prevailed. The party remained staunchly against the dynasty but war against Germany was to be taking precedence over the future of the monarchy in Italy.

Brindisi, September 13th, 1943


Italy officially declared war on Germany. With Italian troops already fighting the Germans, since the armistice this was a mere formalities but formalities themselves mattered...

Amyntaio, September 14th, 1943

Two days earlier a mixed force of Greek Sacred Band commandos and LAS and EOEA guerillas had captured the town and destroyed the railway junction in one of the biggest actions of the resistance in occupied Europe, before retreating again. Now a battalion from the 1st Gebirgs Division and two Bulgarian companies would descend on the little town. Over 500 civilians would be massacred in cold blood.

Mount Vermion, September 17th, 1943

Ares ordered LAS partisans east. With the mountains teeming with German and Bulgarian troops and Allied forces approaching from the south the guerillas remaining in Vermion was becoming both highly problematic and not particularly useful, the partisans would be of far more use in the Axis rear than right on the frontline. It was true that the mostly flat terrain to the east of the mountains, was hardly conductive to guerilla war, Gyparis in one of their few meetings had gone on how a generation before during the struggle with the Turks and the Bulgarians guerilla bands could hide in the massive swamp that was lake Giannitsa. But most inconveniently the swamp had been drained between the wars. Well if the mountains were becoming inhospitable, then perhaps Thessaloniki and the mountains around it would be more conductive to the struggle. Shortly afterwards Gyparis would also come to the same conclusion and the nationalist guerrilas follow their communist counterparts away from Vermion as well.

Korytza, September 17th, 1943

The town was liberated by the Greek IV Infantry Division. By now all of Greek Epirus was free and the Greek army had crossed the prewar border into Albania. Who should the Allies support within Albania now that its liberation seemed to be coming closer? That was a question with no easy answer. Balli Kombetar was of course out of the question since it had sided with the Germans. This left the communists of Enver Hoxca as the strongest of the anti-German groups with a claimed strength of about 20,000 partisans. The Royalists despite the severe misgivings British, Greeks, Yugoslavs and Albanians alike has about king Zog, claimed to have about 8,000 under Abaz Kupi in the north of Albania, while in Greece an Albanian regular army under the command of Gani Kryeziu was being trained but was still in embryonic form and almost negligible in numbers. Communists, Royalists and Western Allies, which in effect meant the Greek army, were supposedly working together. Supposedly...

[1] On grounds of sanity, without the autoloader proposed by Skoda. German engineers might be crazy but crazy enough to stick to the autoloader?
 
Seeing Greece taking over all of its Northern territory is always a good thing! The Balkans is being taken back from the Axis, which is always a good thing, and Greece's full liberation is soon right? It's just everything East of Epirus right?

Also how will the Wallies get into occupied Yugoslavia? Considering they should be nearing the border are we just getting the Royal Yugoslavian forces to get to attack in conjunction with Greek and other Wallies forces? I'm really interested in how Yugoslavia is united, it'd be an interesting situation as we'd get communist and royalist forces starting to interact with each other.

Finally Albania will always be a hard place to control, with all powerful political groups being broadly anti-western. Hopefully the Wallies can figure out something.
 
Epirus, September 8th, 1943

Cheimarra was finally liberated by the Greek VI Infantry Division
Hometown liberated!!! Nice!
The Germans have used the mountains as the Greeks did on their defense. Even with a breakthrough there is always another mountain or another river nearby to consolidate. Only attrition though airstrikes will make a difference and fast movements on the Macedonia plains which are quite close. Partizan presence on the outskirts of Thessalonike is very interesting to be honest especially with the whole moving the Jews out thing going on. Maybe some are saved, maybe heavy repercussions fall on the local residents. Either way it will make a German holdout on the city quite unlikely.
 
Something is telling me that the allies will probably push from Monastir and Thessalonica towards Sofia. If it's so, it's likely that the German army will evacuate what's left of the East Balkans and Turkey as fast as possible, with Bulgaria switching sides in the Italian fashion.
(BTW, where is the line of the South Eastern Front?)
From that to the Turkish surrender, it's a short walk.
However, for the sake of the strongest claim on Constantinople, the Greek Army should liberate it by force.....
 
Something is telling me that the allies will probably push from Monastir and Thessalonica towards Sofia. If it's so, it's likely that the German army will evacuate what's left of the East Balkans and Turkey as fast as possible, with Bulgaria switching sides in the Italian fashion.
Perhaps, but, leaving aside that I believes that it could be a political rather than a exclusively militar decision... But,if so, a push towards Sofia, aside that would likely be a very costly one and that at least that the front would collapse, it'd be extremely unlikely that, (IMO,at least,) the Bulgarians, even if able or offered, that they would think on follow the Italian way.
Also, even reaching, Sofia, (and, if the Bulgarian army would be left with any reserve, I'd suppose, that,that they would redeploy them there, it still would have to be taken against the Bulgarian and German resistance.
But, if the goal would be isolate Eastern Thracia and cut off the still fighting Turks and their German allies, in Anatolia, then, IMO, it would have better chances to get achieved, advancing towards/securing the Black Sea Bulgarian coast and from there pushing northwards to Varna and to the south towards Adrianopolis/Edirne and finally reach and force to surrender to the isolated Constantinople.
While.I would suppose, that the current Allied Axis of Advance, both in Macedon, that would guess that'd continue pushing towards the upper Vardar river Valley and to take/control (actual) Skopje. And the ongoing to clean and control Albania, prioritising,(guess so) its Adriatic coast ports and both would have as last goal to reach the Yugoslavian border and link up directly with the Montenegrins and Serbians resistance groups.

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Perhaps, but, leaving aside that I believes that it could be a political rather than a exclusively militar decision... But,if so, a push towards Sofia, aside that would likely be a very costly one and that at least that the front would collapse, it'd be extremely unlikely that, (IMO,at least,) the Bulgarians, even if able or offered, that they would think on follow the Italian way.
Also, even reaching, Sofia, (and, if the Bulgarian army would be left with any reserve, I'd suppose, that,that they would redeploy them there, it still would have to be taken against the Bulgarian and German resistance.
But, if the goal would be isolate Eastern Thracia and cut off the still fighting Turks and their German allies, in Anatolia, then, IMO, it would have better chances to get achieved, advancing towards/securing the Black Sea Bulgarian coast and from there pushing northwards to Varna and to the south towards Adrianopolis/Edirne and finally reach and force to surrender to the isolated Constantinople.
While.I would suppose, that the current Allied Axis of Advance, both in Macedon, that would guess that'd continue pushing towards the upper Vardar river Valley and to take/control (actual) Skopje. And the ongoing to clean and control Albania, prioritising,(guess so) its Adriatic coast ports and both would have as last goal to reach the Yugoslavian border and link up directly with the Montenegrins and Serbians resistance groups.
I think if the WAllies want to cut off the Turks they'd do it with an Ionia offensive and push North as turkey has always been pushed between the Greeks and the Soviets, and there'd be a much higher chance of breaking the Turks that way while at least taking over Yugoslavia first.

In otl Bulgaria actually just switched sides when the allies looked like they were winning so otl something similar in ittl should happen earlier, especially if Tsar Boris dies as per otl, and I could defo see the WAllies gaining more from Bulgaria capitulating than the Soviets as they could move straight to East Thrace and threaten Constantinople while Turkey gets pressured in the Ionian and eastern Anatolian front by the WAllies and the Soviets. I think the WAllies would have drawn up invasion plans then be given Bulgaria in a platter at the end of things. Tbf we just need tsar Boris to die as per otl.
 
I think if the WAllies want to cut off the Turks they'd do it with an Ionia offensive and push North as turkey has always been pushed between the Greeks and the Soviets, and there'd be a much higher chance of breaking the Turks that way while at least taking over Yugoslavia first.
Yeah, it would be the best option, but as shown TTL Ionian front, it, IMO, would be needed more manpower and firepower than the one actually available there.

otl Bulgaria actually just switched sides when the allies looked like they were winning so otl something similar in ittl should happen earlier, especially if Tsar Boris dies as per otl, and I could defo see the WAllies gaining more from Bulgaria capitulating than the Soviets as they could move straight to East Thrace and threaten Constantinople while Turkey gets pressured in the Ionian and eastern Anatolian front by the WAllies and the Soviets. I think the WAllies would have drawn up invasion plans then be given Bulgaria in a platter at the end of things. Tbf we just need tsar Boris to die as per otl.
Per OTL. It would seem so, but aside that'd be possible that ITTL changes could have caused, at least 'partially butterflying' it.
I tend to think that, even if TTL Bulgarians, would want to follow a similar path to their OTL counterparts. It, still would be left open the question if the Germans would allow it; if ITTL, it would mean to effectively write off the Entire Turkey/Caucasus Front along with all the German forces still fighting there with their Turks allies.
 
I tend to think that, even if TTL Bulgarians, would want to follow a similar path to their OTL counterparts. It, still would be left open the question if the Germans would allow it; if ITTL, it would mean to effectively write off the Entire Turkey/Caucasus Front along with all the German forces still fighting there with their Turks allies.
I could see the Bulgarians following the Italians in having a lot more preparation on the various armies, and especially if the Wallies are also disrupting Axis lines in Yugoslavia the Germans would have too much on their plate. It really depends on what the Wallies do.
 
Yeah, it would be the best option, but as shown TTL Ionian front, it, IMO, would be needed more manpower and firepower than the one actually available there.


Per OTL. It would seem so, but aside that'd be possible that ITTL changes could have caused, at least 'partially butterflying' it.
I tend to think that, even if TTL Bulgarians, would want to follow a similar path to their OTL counterparts. It, still would be left open the question if the Germans would allow it; if ITTL, it would mean to effectively write off the Entire Turkey/Caucasus Front along with all the German forces still fighting there with their Turks allies.
Probably the best option would be an Anatolian offensive by Soviets and/or Allies following by an Ionian one when the Turks are routing and all the Axis reserves had been used up.
That way Turkey wouldn't have anything for stopping a breakthrough in Ionia.
 
Probably the best option would be an Anatolian offensive by Soviets and/or Allies following by an Ionian one when the Turks are routing and all the Axis reserves had been used up.
That way Turkey wouldn't have anything for stopping a breakthrough in Ionia.
tbf I think we'd see the different fronts being pushed by the wallies and soviets so there's more of a chance they can make a breakthrough somewhere and prevent the Turks from reacting to it, especially when they can't focus on both the Anatolian and Ionian fronts at the same time as the war goes on. We've seen various towns being taken over like Batman, and it shouldn't be long before the soviets or wallies create a breakthrough.
 
IMHO, a push towards Sofia would serve the Allies more in terms of time, resources and men, than any advance towards Thrace or to encirlce Bulgaria.
Lascaris has already pointed that from Monastir to Prilep is a short and flat way, so its likely the Allies will push on that direction. From Prilep to Kavadarci is also not far, and a narrow valey has to be passed, but if the attack to Prilep gains the momentum, it's not unlikely the Allies will take Kavadarci, which is the key to a large (by the Blakan standards) plain, and from there the road to Stip (bypassing the Konecka range) is also open, meaning with no major physical obstacles where the Axis can set up a defensive line.
Ih Stip is taken, then the Allies can push towards many directions: Kumanovo and Skopje NW, Strumica SE (better if combined with an Allies attech from Thessalonica, when the city is taken), and finally NE towards Sofia.
Of course the later requires to advance through the Bazovik, Osogovski and Vitosha mountains, but the prize is worth it.
This campaign will take at least to early 1944 and will not come cheap, just cheaper and faste than a campaign to Thrace and then another into Bulgaria from SE.
Consider also that: if the Allies take Thessalonica, where is it more likely for the German units to deploy? My guess is Eastern Macedonia, to cover the Straits and therefore the German forces in Anatolia. That leaves the rather poorly equiped and capable Bulgarian Army to defend the way to Sofia. Furthermore, the Allied air superiority means that the Axis cannot move units from the Eastern Macedonia to the Northern Macedonia easily, nor that they can bring suplies: if the German units stay south to cover Thrace, the Bulgarians are going to get less and less supplies. If or when the Germans decide to evacuate, or redeploy their forces in Anatolia to the Balkan theatre, that will create a mess for the Bulgarians in terms of reinforcements and supplies. In any case, the morale of the Bulgarian Army will suffer, especially if the Red Army gets to the Romanian border.
 

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IMHO, a push towards Sofia would serve the Allies more in terms of time, resources and men, than any advance towards Thrace or to encirlce Bulgaria.
Lascaris has already pointed that from Monastir to Prilep is a short and flat way, so its likely the Allies will push on that direction. From Prilep to Kavadarci is also not far, and a narrow valey has to be passed, but if the attack to Prilep gains the momentum, it's not unlikely the Allies will take Kavadarci, which is the key to a large (by the Blakan standards) plain, and from there the road to Stip (bypassing the Konecka range) is also open, meaning with no major physical obstacles where the Axis can set up a defensive line.
Ih Stip is taken, then the Allies can push towards many directions: Kumanovo and Skopje NW, Strumica SE (better if combined with an Allies attech from Thessalonica, when the city is taken), and finally NE towards Sofia.
Of course the later requires to advance through the Bazovik, Osogovski and Vitosha mountains, but the prize is worth it.
This campaign will take at least to early 1944 and will not come cheap, just cheaper and faste than a campaign to Thrace and then another into Bulgaria from SE.
Consider also that: if the Allies take Thessalonica, where is it more likely for the German units to deploy? My guess is Eastern Macedonia, to cover the Straits and therefore the German forces in Anatolia. That leaves the rather poorly equiped and capable Bulgarian Army to defend the way to Sofia. Furthermore, the Allied air superiority means that the Axis cannot move units from the Eastern Macedonia to the Northern Macedonia easily, nor that they can bring suplies: if the German units stay south to cover Thrace, the Bulgarians are going to get less and less supplies. If or when the Germans decide to evacuate, or redeploy their forces in Anatolia to the Balkan theatre, that will create a mess for the Bulgarians in terms of reinforcements and supplies. In any case, the morale of the Bulgarian Army will suffer, especially if the Red Army gets to the Romanian border.
tbf I think the Bulgarians would capitulate before they get to bulgaria with ittl getting a messy civil war between axis allied bulgarian forces vs wallies bulgarian forces with a significant soviet partisan presence. So we'd prob see something like this as a campaign against the axis remnants, not against the full Bulgarian army. It'd be particularly different when the WAllies march for Yugoslavia with the Chetniks and Royal troops of yugoslavia come into play.
 
Finally caught up on this timeline. Read everything from like February 2021 through the present since last night. Good work with everything !
 
tbf I think the Bulgarians would capitulate before they get to bulgaria with ittl getting a messy civil war between axis allied bulgarian forces vs wallies bulgarian forces with a significant soviet partisan presence. So we'd prob see something like this as a campaign against the axis remnants, not against the full Bulgarian army. It'd be particularly different when the WAllies march for Yugoslavia with the Chetniks and Royal troops of yugoslavia come into play.
Otl the Bulgarians surrendered to the Soviets because they had a big communist movement and for the fact that they had done some pretty nasty thing to Greece. I don't know if they will surrender to WAllies so easily after WW1 while there is still a great German presence in the Balkans and Turkey and the Eastern Front isn't collapsed yet.
 
The Greeks are going to want to drive to Constantinople and establish new facts on the ground and the British will he happy to support them.
 
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