Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Part 113
Guadalcanal, February 1st, 1943

Twenty Japanese destroyers evacuated nearly 5,000 soldiers from the island. Further missions over the next week would complete the Japanese withdrawal. It would be only in February 9th that the Americans would realise the Japanese were gone.

Stalingrad, February 2nd, 1943

The last remains of the German 6th army surrendered to the Soviets bringing the battle of Stalingrad to an end. Hitler had recently promoted general Paulus to field marshal on the theory German field marshals never surrendered so neither would he. Paulus had proven him wrong by surrendering nevertheless. He was the first German field marshal to do so. He would hardly be the last.

Over Smyrna, February 3th, 1943


An Okcu fighter modified for photo-reconnaissance managed to dart over the port and escape the Greek and Polish Spitfires and Ierax III fighters hot on its tail, bringing its precious photos back home. Getting over Smyrna had been getting increasingly more difficult as of late between constantly increasing numbers of Allied fighters in the air and more and more anti-aircraft guns below. It had been a sign of this and the importance the Turkish general staff was giving to reconnaissance that some of the precious Re-2005 fighters being built under licence, named Okcu [1] had been converted to the role.

Thessaloniki, February 4th, 1943

Field marshal Erwin Rommel, had Fevzi Cakmak practically screaming at him over the phone. "Our reconnaissance has detected large numbers of tanks and heavy guns being landed in Izmir as we speak. I'm telling you the Greeks and the Amis are going to be attacking here not again on the Olympus as your intelligence was telling. We need the reinforce the 1st army now. It's bad enough that Halder did not send the forces you are getting now when we could reduce the city, it will be worse if the perimeter is broken and we get another active front on our hands."

The Turk was right. He ordered 10th Panzer to prepare to immediately move by train from Giannitsa where it had been moved in reserve after the fighting in Olympus was over to Anatolia. More would follow.

Arakan, February 8th, 1943

Operation Cannibal the offensive to take Akyab island had initially been hoped to take place in September 1942. Lack of landing craft and objections over the the training of the available forces had postponed it for late December. Then Bernard Montgomery the commander of the British XV Corps had outright refused to begin it before his forces were sufficiently trained for the operation, Harold Alexander commanding the Burma front had backed him up and Claude Auchinlek and the government in London had been forced to agree. But now it was finally time as the Indian 14th Infantry division and 77th Infantry brigade went to the attack.

Berlin, February 9th, 1943


If some people who knew thought the war was going well Hermann Goering was not among them. Thus the meeting with Wever, Milch and their aides. The Luftwaffe was facing increasingly stronger opposition while at the same time several of its new projects were in developmental hell. This was not boding well for the war effort and just as importantly the position of a certain Hermann Goering within the Nazi hierarchy. Decisions had to be taken before it was too late, already some idiot in the army had tried to can the Skoda T-25 tank project forgetting to whom Skoda belonged too. Goering and Wever had already forced over Milch's objections cessation of the project to improve the failed Me-210, Bf-110 would continue into production till Heinkel He-219 and Milch's favourite the Ta-154 took over production. The effort of all variants of the Jumo 222 engine would be frozen to facilitate production of the earlier Jumo 213 then it could resume under better circumstances. The failure of Me-309 the intended replacement of Bf-109 was a more serious issue. There was fortunately an alternative, shockingly enough for German pride the Italian FIAT G.55 was proving itself since entering service the previous summer Axis best fighter and it's new G.56 variant promised to be even more formidable. It was thus decided to organise licence production of G.55 and G.56 in Germany. But there were problems even with this, the FIAT fighter needed 9,000 man-hours to build compared to 5,000 for the Bf-109. Thus initially only a fraction of the industry would be switched to G.55, more could follow when production was optimized....

Smyrna, February 12th, 1943


As Fevzi Cakmak had correctly predicted, the Allied offensive was coming on the Smyrna front. What he could not predict was the level of resources the Allies had available. The US 7th Army under Patton with 6 divisions, 2 of the armoured, two Greek armoured divisions and the British 5th Infantry division reinforced by and armoured brigade had joined Ptolemaios Sarigiannis Army of Asia Minor in Smyrna over the past few weeks. Cakmak and Rommel had reinforced the Turkish 1st army as much as they could and more German reinforcements were on their way but the Allies could reinforcements to Smyrna faster than the Turks and Germans could, the transportation network in Anatolia was limited to a fraction of its normal capacity during the winter months and the Germans were limited to about a division a week from Macedonia. The 1st army was well dug in and would fight back doggedly. Still cracks had begun showing almost immediately. It was not the surprise breakout some in the Allied camp had hoped for, particularly as more and more German reinforcements joined the fight. This didn't make it any less costly in men and material...

West of Ireland, February 18th, 1943

The pair of Hudson's of Squadron 101 of the Irish Army Air Corps, turned back east towards their base and some well deserved rounds of beer after successfully depth charging a German submarine heading south and sinking it with all hands. It would be only after the war and cross-checking captured Kriegsmarine archives that the submarine would be identified as probably being U-180 and several more decades more till an Indian funded maritime archaeology expedition actually found the wreck confirming Subhas Chandra Bose's final resting place.

[1] Archer
 
Who are the amis?
Basically what the Germans called the Americans.
West of Ireland, February 18th, 1943

The pair of Hudson's of Squadron 101 of the Irish Army Air Corps, turned back east towards their base and some well deserved rounds of beer after successfully depth charging a German submarine heading south and sinking it with all hands. It would be only after the war and cross-checking captured Kriegsmarine archives that the submarine would be identified as probably being U-180 and several more decades more till an Indian funded maritime archaeology expedition actually found the wreck confirming Subhas Chandra Bose's final resting place.
Well, the lack of an Azad Hind would be interesting when it comes to India's road to freedom owing to how the Indian Navy mutinied over the INA getting court-martialed IOTL.
 
So the G.55 will be produced in Germany (unlike IOTL) but in limited numbers. Its impact should be limited too.
As for the Allied offensive in the Minor Asia front, it will be successful but not instantly, I wonder what is the target of this offensive. To shutter completely the Turkish siege or to capture some specific cities?
 
Basically what the Germans called the Americans.

Well, the lack of an Azad Hind would be interesting when it comes to India's road to freedom owing to how the Indian Navy mutinied over the INA getting court-martialed IOTL.
Oh okay that's interesting because when i looked up the term it let me to some tribe in Taiwan called amis
 

Serpent

Banned
If the allies can breakthrough the siege lines then it's game over the axis in that front
Not exactly, the Turks will definitely fight on, even without German assistance if it comes to that. But for the rest of the Axis forces trapped in that front, (mostly German & Italian units, but also units from a few minor allies too I believe), their situation will be dire.
 
Not exactly, the Turks will definitely fight on, even without German assistance if it comes to that. But for the rest of the Axis forces trapped in that front, (mostly German & Italian units, but also units from a few minor allies too I believe), their situation will be dire.
Well with three open fronts they won't last long
 
Basically what the Germans called the Americans.

Well, the lack of an Azad Hind would be interesting when it comes to India's road to freedom owing to how the Indian Navy mutinied over the INA getting court-martialed IOTL.
That Bose won't be around does not necessarily mean that Azad Hind won't come to being. After all the two Tokyo conferences that led to its creation and the invitation of Bose to take its leadership predate Bose's journey to India.

So the G.55 will be produced in Germany (unlike IOTL) but in limited numbers. Its impact should be limited too.
Maybe. Then the Germans wanted to build it under license in OTL as well and it went to nowhere. The only difference, that may or may not play a role here is that G.55 is about 6 months ahead of OTL in its development schedule.
As for the Allied offensive in the Minor Asia front, it will be successful but not instantly, I wonder what is the target of this offensive. To shutter completely the Turkish siege or to capture some specific cities?
Both? :angel:
Not exactly, the Turks will definitely fight on, even without German assistance if it comes to that. But for the rest of the Axis forces trapped in that front, (mostly German & Italian units, but also units from a few minor allies too I believe), their situation will be dire.
The Italian divisions are back in the Olympus front. But there are German divisions in all three fronts at the moment...
Well with three open fronts they won't last long
It's certainly not going to be a particularly happy situation for the Turkish army, even just taking into account the increased needs to keep all three fronts in supply.
 
Well an attack that goes to Bithynia has the possibility of cutting of the Axis forces out of Europe, which could mean that the Germans retreat from the other 2 fronts in Caucasus and in Syria with whatever consequences that entails on said fronts. That could mean that the Smyrna offensive will get harder while the other fronts will break so something of a hammer and anvil situation.
 
Appendix Demographics of Turkish provinces 1922-1940
A table with the population of TTL Turkey by province in 1927 and 1940 including settlement patterns for the TTL 1922 exchange of populations and OTL figures for the same purposes for comparison. Note the OTL numbers are solely for the territory controlled by TTL Turkey at the start of the war.

ProvinceOTL 1927 populationOTL RefugeesTTL 1927 populationTTL RefugeesOTL 1940 populationTTL 1940 population
Afyon258.7411.045
265.767​
8.071​
316.034​
324.616​
Ağrı103.5622.856
114.091​
13.385​
121.477​
133.827​
Amasya115.1453.844
161.715​
50.414​
136.029​
191.045​
Ankara404.7261.651
419.077​
16.002​
602.965​
602.965​
Antalya206.2704.920
214.385​
13.035​
256.366​
266.452​
Aydın211.6046.630
44.153​
6.630​
281.784​
165.372​
Balıkesir418.71837.174
109.866​
5.618​
482.827​
126.687​
Bilecik114.0374.461
147.458​
37.882​
127.977​
165.483​
Bingöl00
0​
0​
70.184​
70.184​
Bitlis90.3093.360
124.824​
37.875​
68.825​
95.129​
Bolu217.597194
220.859​
3.456​
257.393​
261.252​
Burdur83.436448
86.991​
4.003​
119.498​
124.590​
Bursa399.54534.543
494.952​
95.967​
461.648​
571.885​
Çankırı156.5880
158.407​
1.819​
183.782​
185.917​
Çoruh (Artvin)89.63046
89.630​
46​
153.273​
153.273​
Çorum247.5991.570
251.822​
5.793​
302.745​
307.909​
Denizli237.0662.728
238.640​
4.302​
285.225​
287.119​
Diyarbakır193.304484
229.451​
36.631​
257.321​
305.439​
Elazığ213.6332.124
225.012​
13.503​
190.366​
200.506​
Erzincan133.970116
161.254​
27.400​
158.498​
190.777​
Erzurum270.3761.095
372.160​
102.879​
371.394​
511.207​
Eskişehir154.1952.567
162.833​
11.205​
206.794​
218.379​
Antep213.4951.330
137.698​
19.505​
306.906​
197.945​
Giresun274.6456.502
294.556​
26.413​
279.236​
299.480​
Gümüşane122.190811
140.589​
19.210​
181.290​
208.588​
Hakâri25.016310
28.167​
3.461​
36.446​
41.037​
Hatay00
0​
0​
246.138​
246.138​
Mersin211.6423.330
259.313​
7.311​
257.709​
315.756​
İsparta144.8041.175
155.851​
12.222​
171.751​
184.854​
Kastamonu335.601842
356.802​
22.043​
369.847​
393.211​
Kayseri250.4907.280
312.974​
69.764​
342.969​
428.522​
Kırşehir127.064193
134.986​
8.115​
149.518​
158.840​
Kocaeli286.68227.687
356.832​
97.837​
375.530​
467.421​
Konya502.2285.549
518.496​
21.817​
620.936​
641.049​
Kütahya303.6411.881
315.063​
13.303​
359.890​
373.428​
Malatya305.78576
320.493​
14.784​
418.473​
438.601​
Maraş184.9581.143
222.259​
38.444​
202.073​
242.826​
Mardin182.773200
148.455​
13.503​
252.505​
205.094​
Muğla174.6874.968
0​
0​
211.445​
211.445​
Muş00
0​
0​
73.939​
73.939​
Niğde293.80018.988
337.660​
62.848​
275.443​
316.563​
Ordu201.3021.248
230.908​
30.854​
305.017​
349.877​
Rize171.6630
173.420​
1.757​
172.764​
174.532​
Samsun273.28322.668
369.673​
119.058​
363.384​
491.554​
Adana335.70911.384
507.702​
61.753​
375.777​
568.298​
Siirt101.6370
102.472​
11.347​
146.522​
147.726​
Sinop168.5331.189
169.943​
2.599​
190.844​
192.441​
Sivas329.7417.539
642.502​
122.515​
468.243​
1.489.750​
Tokat263.7218.218
295.935​
40.432​
317.919​
356.753​
Trabzon292.573404
385.651​
93.482​
390.733​
515.039​
Tunceli00
0​
0​
94.639​
94.639​
Urfa208.539290
162.608​
18.360​
245.398​
191.349​
Van75.437275
132.915​
57.753​
112.975​
199.054​
Yozgat208.6281.635
241.861​
34.868​
276.611​
320.673​
Zonguldak267.9901.285
267.990​
1.285​
349.783​
349.783​
TOTAL11.158.308250.25612.017.1211.542.55914.355.05816.346.215
 
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Rest of OTL Turkey that isn't part of TTL Turkey in all likelihood.
But still the population shouldn't be larger than otl unless some population that was outside of otl came to turkey as refugees...but were from?. Bulgaria? Did the Yugoslav declared the Bosnians as turks and send them to turkey? Did more turks came from the middle east? We are talking about an extra 800k people in 1927 with LESS land
 
A table with the population of TTL Turkey by province in 1927 and 1940 including settlement patterns for the TTL 1922 exchange of populations and OTL figures for the same purposes for comparison. Note the OTL numbers are solely for the territory controlled by TTL Turkey at the start of the war.

ProvinceOTL 1927 populationOTL RefugeesTTL 1927 populationTTL RefugeesOTL 1940 populationTTL 1940 population
Afyon258.7411.045
265.767​
8.071​
316.034​
324.616​
Ağrı103.5622.856
114.091​
13.385​
121.477​
133.827​
Amasya115.1453.844
161.715​
50.414​
136.029​
191.045​
Ankara404.7261.651
419.077​
16.002​
602.965​
602.965​
Antalya206.2704.920
214.385​
13.035​
256.366​
266.452​
Aydın211.6046.630
44.153​
6.630​
281.784​
177.046​
Balıkesir418.71837.174
109.866​
5.618​
482.827​
126.687​
Bilecik114.0374.461
147.458​
37.882​
127.977​
165.483​
Bingöl00
0​
0​
70.184​
70.184​
Bitlis90.3093.360
124.824​
37.875​
68.825​
95.129​
Bolu217.597194
220.859​
3.456​
257.393​
261.252​
Burdur83.436448
86.991​
4.003​
119.498​
124.590​
Bursa399.54534.543
494.952​
95.967​
461.648​
571.885​
Çankırı156.5880
158.407​
1.819​
183.782​
185.917​
Çoruh (Artvin)89.63046
89.630​
46​
153.273​
153.273​
Çorum247.5991.570
251.822​
5.793​
302.745​
307.909​
Denizli237.0662.728
238.640​
4.302​
285.225​
287.119​
Diyarbakır193.304484
229.451​
36.631​
257.321​
305.439​
Elazığ213.6332.124
225.012​
13.503​
190.366​
200.506​
Erzincan133.970116
161.254​
27.400​
158.498​
190.777​
Erzurum270.3761.095
372.160​
102.879​
371.394​
511.207​
Eskişehir154.1952.567
162.833​
11.205​
206.794​
218.379​
Antep213.4951.330
137.698​
19.505​
306.906​
197.945​
Giresun274.6456.502
294.556​
26.413​
279.236​
299.480​
Gümüşane122.190811
140.589​
19.210​
181.290​
208.588​
Hakâri25.016310
28.167​
3.461​
36.446​
41.037​
Hatay00
0​
0​
246.138​
246.138​
Mersin211.6423.330
259.313​
7.311​
257.709​
364.205​
İsparta144.8041.175
155.851​
12.222​
171.751​
184.854​
Kastamonu335.601842
356.802​
22.043​
369.847​
393.211​
Kayseri250.4907.280
312.974​
69.764​
342.969​
428.522​
Kırşehir127.064193
134.986​
8.115​
149.518​
158.840​
Kocaeli286.68227.687
356.832​
97.837​
375.530​
467.421​
Konya502.2285.549
518.496​
21.817​
620.936​
641.049​
Kütahya303.6411.881
315.063​
13.303​
359.890​
373.428​
Malatya305.78576
320.493​
14.784​
418.473​
438.601​
Maraş184.9581.143
222.259​
38.444​
202.073​
242.826​
Mardin182.773200
148.455​
13.503​
252.505​
205.094​
Muğla174.6874.968
0​
0​
211.445​
211.445​
Muş00
0​
0​
73.939​
73.939​
Niğde293.80018.988
337.660​
62.848​
275.443​
316.563​
Ordu201.3021.248
230.908​
30.854​
305.017​
349.877​
Rize171.6630
173.420​
1.757​
172.764​
174.532​
Samsun273.28322.668
369.673​
119.058​
363.384​
491.554​
Adana335.70911.384
507.702​
61.753​
375.777​
568.298​
Siirt101.6370
102.472​
11.347​
146.522​
147.726​
Sinop168.5331.189
169.943​
2.599​
190.844​
192.441​
Sivas329.7417.539
549.950​
122.515​
468.243​
1.008.434​
Tokat263.7218.218
295.935​
40.432​
317.919​
356.753​
Trabzon292.573404
421.663​
93.482​
390.733​
563.133​
Tunceli00
0​
0​
94.639​
94.639​
Urfa208.539290
162.608​
18.360​
245.398​
191.349​
Van75.437275
132.915​
57.753​
112.975​
199.054​
Yozgat208.6281.635
241.861​
34.868​
276.611​
320.673​
Zonguldak267.9901.285
267.990​
1.285​
349.783​
349.783​
TOTAL11.158.308250.25611.960.5811.542.55914.355.05815.973.117
Can we have something like this for Armenia/Georgia?
 
But still the population shouldn't be larger than otl unless some population that was outside of otl came to turkey as refugees...but were from?. Bulgaria? Did the Yugoslav declared the Bosnians as turks and send them to turkey? Did more turks came from the middle east? We are talking about an extra 800k people in 1927 with LESS land

Remember the numbers from OTL Lascaris showed does not include all of Turkey, only parts that are in Turkey ITTL.

Note the OTL numbers are solely for the territory controlled by TTL Turkey at the start of the war.
 
But where did the Extra population came from..i assume that most the refugees are from ionia

Remember the numbers from OTL Lascaris showed does not include all of Turkey, only parts that are in Turkey ITTL.
This is the correct response. Turkey is actually running about 2million people below OTL. 1940 estimated population was about 17.8 million for Turkey while ITTL 1940 is about 16 million. It is a considerable loss of population of almost 10% without even getting into exactly how the demographics break down and how they are likely going to be considerably less advantageous over OTL. Turkey at this point has functionally gutted 2 successive generations of males at a level probably equal if not more than France. Luckily for Turkey the average family size is considerably larger than France but Turkey is going to be hard pressed to reach even 70million ITTL even if they suffer no further losses in people or territory.
 

Serpent

Banned
But still the population shouldn't be larger than otl unless some population that was outside of otl came to turkey as refugees...but were from?. Bulgaria? Did the Yugoslav declared the Bosnians as turks and send them to turkey? Did more turks came from the middle east? We are talking about an extra 800k people in 1927 with LESS land

Actually, the IOTL population of Turkey in 1940 is 17.820.950 people, so that means that the 15.973.117 people that Turkey has TTL is some 11,56% less population than IOTL.

Similarly, going back to Greece's IOTL population in 1940, that is 7,344,860 people, compared with its TTL population, some 9.004.369 people, an increase of 22,59% than IOTL.

(That may include an additional ~550.000 minority people for Greece, but they'll get assimilated in due time)

So comparatively, Greece has significantly narrowed the population gap with Turkey, TTL wise, by a total margin of 36,77%, compared to IOTL.

Can we have something like this for Armenia/Georgia?

Yes please Lascaris, Armenia most importantly, because Armenia has significantly variated from IOTL, which is less the case with Georgia, but in any case, it would be greatly appreciated. And also for Assyria if possible, later on, whenever it becomes an independent state or an autonomous entity at least.
 
Last edited:
But still the population shouldn't be larger than otl unless some population that was outside of otl came to turkey as refugees...but were from?. Bulgaria? Did the Yugoslav declared the Bosnians as turks and send them to turkey? Did more turks came from the middle east? We are talking about an extra 800k people in 1927 with LESS land
Turkey's OTL population in 1927 was 13.648 million. Subtract the population in the provinces not part of TTL Turkey not subject to a population exchange. Subtract the Muslims excepted from the population exchange TTL (Circassians, Pomaks, Vallaads, Muslim Cretans etc). End result is the TTL population. I did as an alternative project the population upwards from the estimation of TTL Turkey's population in 1922, the end results are practically the same, 11,960,581 in the first use case, 11,945,841 in the same so I stuck with the first.

How the TTL population exchanges break down? In OTL the 1927 Turkish census counted 463,549 exchangees. Since the actual number of Muslims that left Greece in the exchange of populations was 355,635 this means 107,914 predate the exchange of populations. TTL the numbers break down as follows:

Refugees before 1922: 107,914
Pre-1920 Greece: 298,914
Thrace: 241,019
Anatolia: 894,712

By comparison TTL Greece has received 1,049,478 people, including Caucasus Greeks and Armenians.
 
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