Ouch, a weaker southern group could mean a harsher Stalingrad for the Germans, unless the Germans manage to distract the Soviets elsewhere. But while Leningrad was a meaningfull city idealogically, Moscow was the logistics centre. The Germans are shooting themselves in the foot here unless the Turks by miracle manage to come close enough to Baku to threaten it.
Arguably the Germans were shooting themselves in the foot also in OTL... and aside from German generals trying to blame every single on their mistakes on the corporal, it seems to me their mistakes and strategic deficiencies date back all the way to Prussian times. I don't see how any random event post-POD would alter this.
Although perhaps ittl landlease for the Soviets could add more oil so Baku while devastating wouldn't be the end if the axis bleed themselves dry for it.
Let me just note that Erzurum to Baku is 968 km. In central European terms, that's from the modern Polish border to Moscow... only Poland to Moscow does not have several mountain ranges on the way.
I do wonder what a Turkish/axis offensive of Azerbaijan is going to mean for future relations though. All in all, I feel like the Turks might have brought a good degree of unity for the Caucasus depending on how harsh they are.
The Armenians and Caucasus Greeks, probably also the Georgians can be reasonably expected to be dead set against the invaders. The Muslim nationalities not so much, after all there are ties since Ottoman times...
Well if the azeris openly support the turks during the offensive things are not going to be good for the Soviets as they could lose the baku oil for a time...now after the war i expect some territorial changes in the ssr in the Caucasus..maybe Armenia and Georgia gain some land at the expense of Azerbaijan? And maybe Stalin could deport some lf the azeri population to central asia.. although I think the azeris wouldn't openly support the axis before any turks enter into Azerbaijan itself
On the other hand Iran is also in the fight with the Allies. The Azeris could be influenced from Sivas but also Tehran.
Noooooooot looking forward to reading what happens when the Turks reach Yerevan…
As of the latest instalment the Turkish army is already going into Armenian territory, Kars and Ardahan are part of the Armenian SSR TTL...
The Eastern Front appears to continue with little divergence.
The TL is primary an exercise at Greece plausibly winning the Greek-Turkish war in 1919-22 and the likely effects from that. Butterflies are inevitable, minor random events included, but I try to keep then logically stemming from the POD. In the case of the Eastern front the Germans and Romanians start out somewhat weaker... on the other hand the Soviets need to fight the Turks as well. Things even out...
Good that Greece is getting a seat at the table, albiet a small one.
Not certain if there were any French representative in OTL in the joint chiefs, at least this early... but the Greek situation is somewhat unique. In OTL on the side of the western allies as of early 1942 you had the US, the British empire (which included the Dominions) and only governments in exile with very limited resources. TTL Greece is here an oddity. Not the US or Britain, not a British dominion, but an independent minor ally with 16 divisions in the field. It needs to be taken into account to some degree in military planning, at least in the Near East...
I can't wait to see how the first American units perform and what Patton's role will be.
The ones in Tunis are commanded by Fredenhall...
Rommel is good but we will see how good quite soon. I'm curious to see if the Allied Units in Iraq and Syria will continue to advance or not, could potentially play a major role in how successful the Axis Caucasus offensive. Or even an air campaign from Mosul could wreak havoc upon the Turkish logistics.
For the time being things are slightly in Axis favour over the Balkans and Anatolia, the emphasis on slightly. RAF is mostly concentrated in the fighting in Tunisia and the Sicilian straits, the Turks are producing a decent set of modern aircraft, and the Italians have put Folgore into production about 6 months earlier with their series 5 fighters likely to also be brought into service earlier.
Tbf considering it originally only the US and Britain are there so Greece getting in there to influence policy is much better than otl.
For Greece sure...
Tbf at least for Greece the borders in the ME will be the de facto borders of the Soviet and WAllies armies it's more how much land Greece is granted and how much goes to the puppet, and I highly doubt that the Soviets could get to western Anatolia.
Which puppet?
The Shephardi community in Thessaloniki might survive the Holocaust. Certainly the military-age males that will survive the battles might form a new cernel to rebuild the community. However, if all their families are gone, I think most of them will migrate to Israel.
We shall see what we shall see...
However, there is still time before the deportation of the civilians to the camps. I think in TTL, their value as forced labor is greater than in OTL. There is now a major active front, and a lot of labor is needed to maintan the road and railroad network in Greece. The departure of the death trains might be postponed for a few weeks or months.
Also the rail network will need to supply both the Thessalian front and Turkey with arms and munitions. Diverting trains to sending Jews to the camps... ok we are talking about Nazi Germany here so it may well be done. Also there is the Jewish community of Constantinople, nearly 70,000 people to take into account. The Nazis will want to exterminate both, but do they go first for Thessaloniki, Constantinople or both? There the burden on the rail network may play a role...
Even if the deportation is not postponed, in OTL the first train departed at March 15th 1943. Now the Allies are attacking the Mareth Line at August 4th. If we take the OTL campaign as a rule of thumb, then it will take a couple of months for the Allies to clear Tunisia. After all, the Axis are weaker Tunisia compared to OTL. That means, that come November, the Germans will be bogged in the Staligrand meatgrinder, the Italians will be out of reserves - and what reserves they have will be rushed in Sicily and there will be two idle Allied Armies in North Africa that can land in Sicily only in April-May 1943. The logical destination for supplies and a corps or two, is ... Greece.
Even if the Axis position in Tunisia goes down earlier I'm not entirely certain how much earlier an Allied landing in Sicily can take place, since this is dependent on available shipping. Now in Greece Piraeus can support any reasonable allied army but the railroad going north has a capacity about 4,400t a day. Of course there is a reason the Allies double tracked it all the way to the front... but the front is still at Thermopylae at the moment.
Overall, I think there are decent chances for Pangalos to reach Thessaloniki before the death trains start their engines.
That's an interesting composition. It reminds me more of the french DLMs than british armoured divisions. A good compromise between armour and infantry.
The Greeks ARE modelling after the French DLM, after all their army organizationally descends from the French traning missions that set it up as a modern force in the first place. Although one notes the logic of one tank and one infantry brigade is not all that different from the British model. How that involved longer term? Perhaps not much differently than what O'Connor was doing with British armoured divisions after 1944 with 4 combat commands each with an armoured and an infantry battalion..
My knowledge at aircraft development is quite limited. May I ask what it means in practical terms compared to OTL?
Not much. The Germans are a little bit more rational in cutting their losses with DB604 and Jumo 222 earlier, I expect this should bring Jumo 213 working somewhat earlier and with it FW-190D, in OTL the prototype flew in October 1942 and series production begun only in September 1944, by comparison, Hawker Tempest first flew in September 1942 and entered service in January 1944. Of course this coupled with the Italian series 5 fighters entering service earlier may well lead to Allied countermeasures in turn...
A potential rival is out of the game. A good choice for DC to be honest. Did Papagos speak english? I know he spoke french.
No idea but he seems a pretty suitable choice...
Even though Papagos would be by far the least influential man in the Joint Chiefs, his role can quite important. If the Big Guys are having disagreements in strategy, the Little Guy can tip the boat to one or the other side, by playing the neutral part who is looking out for the benefit of the whole alliance.
At least provides someone with hands on experience in any Quixotic plans for the Balkans...
Will the III armored division's infantry be motorized or will it be leg infantry?
The allies are not exactly short Bren carriers or halftracks...
