No US entry into WW1, how does it impact US in WW2 analogue?

Let's say there's an Allied victory in World War One in roughly the same manner as OTL, but with no US entry. It might be Austria falling apart in 1917, or maybe something else; but, even if Germany doesn't go fascist (which it still could if there's enough instability), there is still Japan's military buidup and a likely Pacific War.

The question is, what would the US see as their role? Would the desire for isolation be near as great if over 100,000 lives hadn't been lost in WW1? Would there be more of a desire to at least have a Lend-Lease type of senario? For all we know, it could be the Societs and Japan forming a bloc, which would make thigns more interesting (and maybe American wouldn't feel as threatened but go after Japan first)?

What would the military situation be like? One of the interesting things to consideris how different the wars were - any lessons about rench warfare wouldn't have to be unlearned; but on the other hand, would you have the career officers who had served in WW1 and were thus ready to be the leaders in WW2?

I guess part of it depends on the timing of everything, too. There would be a big recession even if not the Great Depression - speculation and other factors led to it, too, not just the effects of WW1. But, who would bepresident and take the fall in '32 might depend on how 1916 went. If butterflies put Hughes in the White House after a slightly more successful Brusilov Offensive, and Austria collapses, Hughes might win re-election in 1920 and then maybe Hoover for 2 terms? Or someone like James Cox in 1924, it's hard to say. But, if Bryan wins in 1912 and has to be badgered just to keep trading with Britain, and then stops all trade with Europe once the Germans start unrestricted sub warfare (but would Bryan be forced to declare war, anyway? Maybe), then you might get the democrats winning in 1920 and the Republicans taking over in 1932.
 
First, I don't think an Allied victory without the US being involved would be possible. I'd want to see that justified.

The USA could try to clean up by selling to both sides. Our economy would be much more stable. Germany would have been completely taken apart by France and the other powers. I wouldn't expect any mercy. There would be no League of Nations, I think. Wilson pushed for that stuff.

What would have happened if the Germans could prove that the Zimmerman Telegram was a fake and they had restraint in torpedoing USA ships. Give the ship a chance to be diverted to an ally of Germany if possible, where it will be confiscated and the people on board will be detained. Otherwise, you must give fifteen minutes for evacuation of the ship if war materials are on board and the ship isn't flagged by a warring party, as long as it doesn't resist inspection and nobody is shooting at you. I don't know if a US congress would approve a war then.
 
First, I don't think an Allied victory without the US being involved would be possible. I'd want to see that justified.

The USA could try to clean up by selling to both sides. Our economy would be much more stable. Germany would have been completely taken apart by France and the other powers. I wouldn't expect any mercy. There would be no League of Nations, I think. Wilson pushed for that stuff.

What would have happened if the Germans could prove that the Zimmerman Telegram was a fake and they had restraint in torpedoing USA ships. Give the ship a chance to be diverted to an ally of Germany if possible, where it will be confiscated and the people on board will be detained. Otherwise, you must give fifteen minutes for evacuation of the ship if war materials are on board and the ship isn't flagged by a warring party, as long as it doesn't resist inspection and nobody is shooting at you. I don't know if a US congress would approve a war then.
If the US are selling to both sides then the ships carrying contraband to Germany are detained by British ships following cruiser rules with prize assessed by an Admiralty court.
If US ships are carrying war material to the Entente German U-boats can try to use cruiser rules. But just trying to board a neutral vessel from a submarine in the middle of the Atlantic is not a quick evolution. And if they don't inspect the cargo/manifest who is to say they were not innocent seafarers?
 
Profiteering by arms manufacturers during WW1 led to a lot isolationist conspiracy theories. An Entente victory means that profiteering probably still happened, but without the body count from direct American entry, it might not be as potent an argument.
 
The main difference between the two World Wars, as said in resources that I found on the educational site, was that in the first, conscripts made up the majority of soldiers whereas in the second, volunteers were more common. Lessons about trench warfare wouldn't have to be unlearned if there had been no WW1 because that type of fighting became less common as technology advanced. However, you would not have the same pool of career officers who had served in WW1 and were thus ready to lead in WW2. The experience they gained during the first war would have been invaluable in the second. Ultimately, whether or not WW1 occurred would not have made much difference in how WW2 turned out.
 
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David Flin

Gone Fishin'
Germany wasn't reliant on buying food, arms and supplies from abroad.

Blinks.

Prior to the war, Germany imported around 30% of its food requirements from abroad, which were cut off by the blockade.

It was reliant on buying food, fertiliser, and so on from abroad.

There's a whole section on it in 1914-1918 online.

 
Germany wasn't reliant on buying food, arms and supplies from abroad.
Here we go again.

Inherent here is this assumption that the Entente would simply collapse before even beginning to experience the deprivation and desperation of the Central Powers.
 
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First, I don't think an Allied victory without the US being involved would be possible. I'd want to see that justified.
If you want to see justification, doubt and debate of the premise there are many, many, threads on the site that go into it in considerable detail. Here are a few to get you started:

The idea often comes up in other WW1 threads so a significant percentage of those not directly related to the question will also have some insight.

For my part, as long as the US allows the Entente with credit (ie, Wilson either reverses or never implements his policy of squeezing the Entente to attempt to force an acceptance of his peace note in Nov -Dec 1916) then I think militarily little changes from OTL as far as the flow of the war. If Wilson persists in his attempts then I think the Entente still wins the war though in a materially worse condition.

That said, others on this site with at least equal ability for reason as me have their own, valid, reasons for believing otherwise. Feel free to make your own opinion.

As to the OP, I think it depends on the role that the US plays in the rebuilding process. IOTL there was a struggle between the US and UK in the 1920’s to define the new system of international finance and trade on terms favourable to them. The US wanted a deregulated system on the Gold Standard as this best allowed them to maximize their new economic muscle. The UK, with a struggling economy and a perceived need to deflate the pound, tried to establish multiple currency zones and an international body to regulate the flow of gold. Depending on the cause you assign to the the Great Depression, the UK’s option may well have avoided the Depression. This would have been due to happy accident rather than prescience on the UK’s part, but that would obviously affect things going forward.

If the US did not join the war then they initially have less of an in to determine the shape of the world going forward. However, they are still going to be the world’s creditor. And that means their cooperation is required to rebuild the global financial system. So they may get their way regardless. But without the idea that the US should, as a co-belligerent cancel the debts as part of the contribution to defeating the enemy, then the Entente nations may make different moves as well. These may change the state of things in the OTL WW2 period.

Assuming all else is as OTL, the US Will still likely be opposed to a Nazi state controlling all of Europe. It’s still against their business interests and forms a possible future threat to the US. And without the belief that the Entente and Wall Street tricked the US into a war, then isolationism might actually be less pronounced in some quarters.

It’s hard to say for sure but I expect that things might be much as OTL. The US would be happy to sell things to the Allies and may not specify Cash and Carry. They would still be concerned about the Fall of France and may extend further help at that point. But depending on who is president then Land-lease may not exist, and without the experience of building the army in WW1, as well as combat from it, the American Military could take longer to come into its own in mobilization , material, and competency.
 
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If the US stays neutral, then Germany's chances for victory are significantly higher than IOTL, but the Entente still would have the higher chances. If there can't be a peace without annexations in 1918, I think the Entente should be able to break Germany in 1919. In this scenario France will probably except a lot more for their contribution, so you could see a direct annexation of the Saar territory and maybe an independent Rhenish Republic.
 
Blinks.

Prior to the war, Germany imported around 30% of its food requirements from abroad, which were cut off by the blockade.

It was reliant on buying food, fertiliser, and so on from abroad.

There's a whole section on it in 1914-1918 online.

Before the Great War the UK imported much of it's explosives and most of the precursors, despite the wartime efforts (i.e. Weizmann and ABE) the Entente were still importing lost of US explosives, bulk chemicals and arms.
 
Before the Great War the UK imported much of it's explosives and most of the precursors, despite the wartime efforts (i.e. Weizmann and ABE) the Entente were still importing lost of US explosives, bulk chemicals and arms.
Prior to the war the military orders in Britain were small and it was considered cheaper to order from Germany. By 1915 thirteen private companies were producing explosives, alongside government factories. Several of which had individual production greater than the entire national production per-war. Importa from the US were mostly nitrocellulose propellant from Du Pont to cover the gap that was still being filled in new cordite production. The bulk of British explosives production was produced in country. In fact the British chemical industry was producing more TNT, Amatol, and Picric acid than there were shells to fill with it.
AC8C7530-B59B-4E70-870E-FE774A7E02A8.jpeg

Note that “abroad” includes both Canada and South Africa, both major explosive producers by wars end (or prewar in SA’s case)


However, this does not diminish the value of the American production. It did fill a necessary gap. However, it is only a problem if the supply from the US gets cut off. Which the US remaining neutral would not do, as it was neutral when such supplies were ordered IOTL. Unless credit dries up entirely (which is a separate discussion we have had often elsewhere) then the orders of explosives from the US does not derail the OP.
 
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Awhile ago I posted this in another WW1 thread:
WW1 threads have their own version of Godwin's Law:
- threads about the start of the war soon evolve into a discussion about who started the war and after a few pages everyone is so deep in their trenches that no-one remembers the original question;
- threads about the end of the war soon evolve into a discussion about whether the UK would have collapsed financially without the US entrance and after a few pages everyone is so deep in their trenches that no-one remembers the original question.

I see some similarity with the actual WW1.
I got to say that this thread breaks the record, already in the first reply it was brought up.
 

this thread i did breaks the record for the sheer amount of debate on the can/will/entente-shemetent. 32 pages of inglorious shenanigans.

personally, i think the entente wins an economic war of attrition. That was sorta the entire point of the empires. And frankly, if America gets snippy about the debts during the war, what exactly is that going to do? the governments can't be held accountable while Britain still rules the waves, all Wilson will accomplish is a stock market crash. And he had to have known that they were getting that money by extracting reparations from Germany, or planning on it.

as for what the treaty looks like, it's gonna be harsher. Firstly, because without America, then there's no one bringing the rhetoric of self-determination for non-Irish white people. Britain flipped to that position because they wanted good terms with Wilson- prior to that, they also agreed that "Germany OP devs pls nerf." Secondly, because even if I think the entente wins the war, it's going to take longer, and likely a push into Germany or them falling into revolution like OTL. And France OTL had the harshest plans, wanting to balkanize Germany again, seeing its continued existence as an existential threat to France. (and frankly I don't blame them.)

I suspect France will annex the Saarland directly and take a chunk of the Rhine- not a lot, but a bit. Belgium and Luxembourg might also gain some concessions, since they were invaded. That and either an independent/puppet rhineland, or bavaria/south-germany.

wilson wanted peace through ideology, which doesn't work. France wanted peace through political reality (and with the political goal of revenge.)
 

kham_coc

Banned
Blinks.

Prior to the war, Germany imported around 30% of its food requirements from abroad, which were cut off by the blockade.
Yes. Which was the status quo.
The UK though wasn't under a blockade, bur if they ran out of money, they effectively would be.
 
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