No Nazism (and maybe no WWII) - What is the ultimate fate of the Second Polish Republic?

Overall, most people on this forum think that should the Nazis either not exist or not succeed as a movement, the Weimar Republic would still fall to some kind of militaristic right-wing nationalist and revanchist regime (Notzis/Kaiserboos are not what I have in mind, these tropes are just lazy and unoriginal IMHO), in the case of no Nazis, they would be one that is not as genocidal and brutally expansionist as the Nazis were, but still one that are slowly and pragmatically (instead of quickly) re-arming itself and militarizing its state, and that also seeks to undo the Treaty of Versailles, and regain back the territories (and to a lesser extent, the overseas colonies) of the German Empire as of 1914

Weimar or a right-wing Germany merely demanding their pre-1919 German Empire borders back is a much more reasonable position, instead of wishing to become an unrealistic gigantic empire from the Channel Islands to the Urals, and you also have the Soviet Union under Stalin doing their own thing and having their own plans, and thus, it seems that even in a TL without the Nazis, it looks like that the Second Polish Republic was inevitably doomed in some way or another.

Asking this because I have been recently working on a no-WWII timeline, and what the world as of 2024 looks like ITTL, now being honest, I personally think that even with no Hitler, the Nazis could still gain power under a different charismatic leader, or a series of various charismatic figures, but regardless, for my story which demands a no-WWII world, the POD that I have is Hitler becoming an accomplished and passionate artist and never getting involved in politics, and the butterflies of him never showing up to the DAP results in more of the top Nazi leadership getting killed off during a significantly different (and even more poorly-executed) Beer Hall Putsch, with the party never recovering after that.

Thus after the disastrous putsch, the DAP (ITTL they never adopted the NSDAP name and the Swastika as their symbol) falls into irrelevance and fades away from history, and are remembered as a bunch of Sicarii-esque suicidal cultists that would have never realistically gained power in Germany (wink wink), with the surviving Nazis fleeing to other far-right organizations (the ones that would accept them, since the TTL Nazis are now more viewed as a glorified street gang of idiotic thugs and delinquents who give German Nationalists a bad name, rather than patriotic heroes and revolutionaries), and never rising to prominent positions themselves.

So what are your opinions on this?,
  1. How would this non-Nazi but still right-wing and nationalistic Germany seek to undo Versailles?
  2. Could the Second Polish Republic survive to the modern-day with its 1939 borders, even with its ethnic Ukrainian, Belarusian, and German regions?
  3. Lithuania is also an elephant in the room, would it still keep claiming territory from Poland indefinitely?
  4. Would Germany be satisfied with Poland ceding a Danzig corridor of the sorts, Germany now has direct access to East Prussia but not its pre-1919 territories?
  5. Would Poland agree to negotiate with a more sane Germany?, or would Germany still militarily invade Poland alongside the USSR much like IOTL?
  6. If Poland is still invaded by both countries (this time in the mid-late 1940s instead of 1939), what would they seek to do with it?
  7. Germany annexes its pre-1919 areas, but leaves Poland as a rump and landlocked puppet/client state just like in WW1 (this time, Poles still get ethnically cleansed and shoved into a small rump state, but on the flipside, the whole Generalplan Ost/Slavic untermensch extermination is not a thing), while the Soviet Union perhaps also plans to annex it as a small Polish SSR, with the exact same territory of the Russian Empire's Congress Poland?
  8. What about other territories that Germany also desires back, like the border areas of France and Belgium?
  9. I am assuming that if there is no war between Germany and Poland, then Stalin would likely also sit back and avoid large-scale invasions, perhaps only Moldova would be in his sight, and this could result in the Soviets pivoting to Asia.
  10. And most importantly, with this more sane Germany, that (I assume) annexes Austria but does not goes after Czechoslovakia, would Britain and France still declare war on them?
Note: This thread is just the popular assumption of Germany still going semi-fascist even without the Nazis, If you wish to put a surviving Weimar Republic under the SPD in your scenario, you are still more than welcome to do it!
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Well, for one, ceasing to be a republic. At any rate, without appeasement being completely proven useless by an occupation of the remnants of Czechoslovakia, I suspect that Poland would be forced to make concessions to Germany, perhaps in return for questionable promises of German backing against Soviet expansion.
 
A right-wing non-Nazi Germany might actually never go for a nonaggression declaration with Poland ITTL. von Neurath OTL said in April 1933 that an understanding with Poland was "neither possible nor desirable". Would the lack of a nonaggression declaration with Poland change anything? It probably wouldn't, but who knows?
 
imo any non-nazi Germany is likely to continue the cooperation with the USSR that Weimar had which was so mutually beneficial, so the Second Polish Republic probably ends up getting its peripheral territories chipped away by the Germans and Soviets before a rump state is placed in either the German or Soviet sphere of influence. In a scenario where the Weimar Republic survives this is especially likely but I think it's even possible for something like a Wehrstaat regime
 
Well, for one, ceasing to be a republic. At any rate, without appeasement being completely proven useless by an occupation of the remnants of Czechoslovakia, I suspect that Poland would be forced to make concessions to Germany, perhaps in return for questionable promises of German backing against Soviet expansion.
Without war? Nope. And if war happens result is roughly IOTL.
 
Speaking solely of Poland, I think that their own hunger for recognition will burn them. Poland in this era fiercely-defended their right to become a Great European Power, with desires towards expansion and even colonialism, but were also willing to push it to the limits. This is the same attitude which got them into trouble with the Czechs and the Little Entente. All things considered, it is actually surprisingly easy for a militaristic, right-wing Germany to isolate Poland and then place their boot on their neck. Poland just has to be goaded into expanding their mistreatment of the minorities, which Germany can easily play against them. Germany protests and demands special rights, Poland refuses (as they always would), and Germany portrays Poland as unreasonable. It leads very easily to a limited war wherein Germany retakes the 1919 territories.

A better question is whether this Germany would be willing to see the Soviets encroach on Poland's East. The Weimar Government did indeed have a close-ish relationship to them, but there is no guarantee that a hypothetical Right-wing government might continue that. It is also entirely possible that they use this war to cement their influence over Poland but otherwise keep them whole and independent with their remaining territories as a buffer.

I also don't think that this Germany would earn the ire of Britain. France would surely be pissed at Poland being attacked, but wouldn't have intervened without backing by another major power. Even Hitler would have been allowed a romp through Poland if they hadn't learned of his perfidious nature regarding the Czechoslovakian affair--and yes, this Germany would still go after the Sudetenland, but I imagine that they would stop there and try to force Prague into a puppet status rather than outright annexing.

Returning to Poland, it would likely remain a German-aligned, but popularly anti-German dictatorship for another decade or so, or until the German one falls. I don't actually see this Germany declaring war on the Soviets; instead, a sort of Cold War with it on the anti-Communist side. The dictatorships would collapse after a generation or two, and the emerging Poland and Germany would probably be begrudging friends, with Poland continuing to claim the lost territory but otherwise being relatively chill.

If the Soviets DID invade Poland, I could see a Polish SSR based on old Congress Poland. Germany would probably face backlash for being seen as allowing this and might be forced to set aside their claims on Austria and definitely Czechoslovakia to avoid a coalition.

Neither version of Germany (Soviet Ally or opponent) can regain Alsace-Lorraine without a war. Eupen-Malmedy from Belgium is more flexible, since the Belgians were willing to trade it for money.
 
Blah, blah, blah evil dumb Poles would destroy themselves blah, blah, blah...

If Germany invade Poland geopolitical domino would still fall same as OTL. UK & France have not declared war in Germany because of nazism, there were no death camps on 3 September 1939. They did it, because Germany shattered geopolitical landscape of Europe. Von Neurath expected it before nazism, that France would defend their sphere of influence.
 
Blah, blah, blah evil dumb Poles would destroy themselves blah, blah, blah...

If Germany invade Poland geopolitical domino would still fall same as OTL. UK & France have not declared war in Germany because of nazism, there were no death camps on 3 September 1939. They did it, because Germany shattered geopolitical landscape of Europe. Von Neurath expected it before nazism, that France would defend their sphere of influence.

I think that you are too trustful with France and speciality with Britain. Speciality Britain has lot of history betraying even its friends. And one thing with OTL declaration of war was that even Chamberlain had admit that he can't trust to Hitler at all. Hitler broke promise after promise and broke them even before ink on paper had dried. This time Germany would act very differently and Britain and France might even decide to let Poland on its own. In OTL Germany was able to break several points of ToV and if Germany remains as democratic or at least not go as far as nazism or even fascism former Entente might not be too intrested go war with Germany. Of course it is still possible but I wouldn't call that as certain. Great powers in right conditions are ready to push weaker nations under a bus.
 
I think that you are too trustful with France and speciality with Britain. Speciality Britain has lot of history betraying even its friends. And one thing with OTL declaration of war was that even Chamberlain had admit that he can't trust to Hitler at all. Hitler broke promise after promise and broke them even before ink on paper had dried. This time Germany would act very differently and Britain and France might even decide to let Poland on its own. In OTL Germany was able to break several points of ToV and if Germany remains as democratic or at least not go as far as nazism or even fascism former Entente might not be too intrested go war with Germany. Of course it is still possible but I wouldn't call that as certain. Great powers in right conditions are ready to push weaker nations under a bus.

And such non-Nazi but right-wing Germany would most likely make Poland it's puppet without any war, as Poles would know that without France/GB backing they would not have any chances to defend themselves and such Germany is better than USSR as overlord anyways.
 
And such non-Nazi but right-wing Germany would most likely make Poland it's puppet without any war, as Poles would know that without France/GB backing they would not have any chances to defend themselves and such Germany is better than USSR as overlord anyways.
If such Germany demands Corridor, then war is imminent anyway, so is German-Soviet pact to ensure at least USSR's neutrality. Germans hated Poland much more than USSR, even right wing ones, and preffered 1914 borders over Polish buffer against Soviets.
 
If such Germany demands Corridor, then war is imminent anyway
I don't know. If Germany demands a Polish Corridor, let's say just the Pomeranian Province, BUT nothing else (Austria, Czechoslovakia, Belgium) there is a chance the Great Powers could allow them to keep it. After all, the Appeasement allowed them to get away with more in OTL, expecting Hitler was going to stop after a few moves.
Now, the question is what will the Soviets do? They probably would try to force Poland into giving them some land, but I genuinely think that would be a big NO to the rest of the Powers, meaning the start of an alt-WWII. But this time against a Soviet Russia, but with Germany as an ally, ironically.
 
Blah, blah, blah evil dumb Poles would destroy themselves blah, blah, blah...

If Germany invade Poland geopolitical domino would still fall same as OTL. UK & France have not declared war in Germany because of nazism, there were no death camps on 3 September 1939. They did it, because Germany shattered geopolitical landscape of Europe. Von Neurath expected it before nazism, that France would defend their sphere of influence.
It isn't about Poland being dumb or evil, it is about the West fearing Communism more than they liked Poland. Poland was no great step worse than anyone else in that era, and a lot better than many.

But I agree with @Lalli that it isn't a guarantee that France and Britain would defend Poland. France quite happily threw Czechoslovakia to the wolves and abandoned all of its allies in the East once it became clear that the Germans were more powerful. If Germany had gone after Poland before Czechoslovakia, we probably would've seen a version of the Munich conference where Hitler at first gets the Corridor, before getting greedy and invading Poland, with WW2 starting over the Sudetenland rather than Danzig.

Plus, the geopolitical dominos, as you say, are extremely determined by factors set in motion by Hitler. Removing Hitler automatically changes the board. Does this new Germany militarise the Rhineland? Do they have the Anschluss first? If the very first thing they do after nearly 20 years at peace is try and get back land from Poland, and spin it successfully as undoing an injustice, I really cannot see anyone being able to muster much of an opposition.
 
It isn't about Poland being dumb or evil, it is about the West fearing Communism more than they liked Poland. Poland was no great step worse than anyone else in that era, and a lot better than many.

But I agree with @Lalli that it isn't a guarantee that France and Britain would defend Poland. France quite happily threw Czechoslovakia to the wolves and abandoned all of its allies in the East once it became clear that the Germans were more powerful. If Germany had gone after Poland before Czechoslovakia, we probably would've seen a version of the Munich conference where Hitler at first gets the Corridor, before getting greedy and invading Poland, with WW2 starting over the Sudetenland rather than Danzig.

Plus, the geopolitical dominos, as you say, are extremely determined by factors set in motion by Hitler. Removing Hitler automatically changes the board. Does this new Germany militarise the Rhineland? Do they have the Anschluss first? If the very first thing they do after nearly 20 years at peace is try and get back land from Poland, and spin it successfully as undoing an injustice, I really cannot see anyone being able to muster much of an opposition.
Nope. Poland would not give up Corridor without a war. Poland was more determined to fight for independence that Czechoslovakia and would resist.
 
Nope. Poland would not give up Corridor without a war. Poland was more determined to fight for independence that Czechoslovakia and would resist.
Oh, I definitely think that it would end in war, don't get me wrong, but that war would see Poland lose more than the Corridor. Poland was stronger and more fiercely independent than the Czechs--Poland wouldn't surrender a single inch without a fight.
 
Oh, I definitely think that it would end in war, don't get me wrong, but that war would see Poland lose more than the Corridor. Poland was stronger and more fiercely independent than the Czechs--Poland wouldn't surrender a single inch without a fight.
Yes. It would end with German-Soviet partition of Poland
 
imo any non-nazi Germany is likely to continue the cooperation with the USSR that Weimar had which was so mutually beneficial, so the Second Polish Republic probably ends up getting its peripheral territories chipped away by the Germans and Soviets before a rump state is placed in either the German or Soviet sphere of influence. In a scenario where the Weimar Republic survives this is especially likely but I think it's even possible for something like a Wehrstaat regime
The Germans would certainly want to continue cooperating with the Soviet Union. However, it should be noted that German-Soviet relations weren't entirely without issues even during the Weimar era, and I believe they were deteriorating in the early 1930s even before the Nazis were in power. In particular, the Soviet-Polish Non-Aggression Pact that was signed in 1932 (before the Nazis got into power OTL) caused there to be uncertainty over whether the Soviet Union would help Germany if they got into a war with Poland.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Without war? Nope. And if war happens result is roughly IOTL.
Which parts of OTL are inevitable in any border-changing German war with Poland?

*All* of them?

Step 1. War leading to complete destruction and complete partition of 2nd Polish Republic, no rumps allowed.
Step 2. Genocidal occupation of Polish lands while occupation lands
Step 3. Further Russo-German conflict, eventual Russian victory
Step 4. Russia keeping its eastern Polish gains while defeating Germany, "forces Poland west", compensating Poland with German lands to weaken German but increase Polish dependence on Russia
 
Which parts of OTL are inevitable in any border-changing German war with Poland?

*All* of them?

Step 1. War leading to complete destruction and complete partition of 2nd Polish Republic, no rumps allowed.
Step 2. Genocidal occupation of Polish lands while occupation lands
Step 3. Further Russo-German conflict, eventual Russian victory
Step 4. Russia keeping its eastern Polish gains while defeating Germany, "forces Poland west", compensating Poland with German lands to weaken German but increase Polish dependence on Russia
Step 1 is almost certain
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Blah, blah, blah evil dumb Poles would destroy themselves blah, blah, blah...

If Germany invade Poland geopolitical domino would still fall same as OTL. UK & France have not declared war in Germany because of nazism, there were no death camps on 3 September 1939. They did it, because Germany shattered geopolitical landscape of Europe. Von Neurath expected it before nazism, that France would defend their sphere of influence.
Too bad the British spent all of 1925-through March 1939 flinching from what would ultimately be their bottom line: "no es bueno to invade-o Poland-o". But Britain made a diplomatic fetish in the interwar, right up until the guarantee of April 1939, of *not* guaranteeing the borders of Germany's *eastern neighbors*, explicitly excluding them, Poland especially, from the west European status quo borders guarantees of the 1925 Locarno Pact - tsk, tsk, "Stick with a plan old chap, stick with a plan!"
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Yes. It would end with German-Soviet partition of Poland
Why? Because no matter the level of local, tactical and operational defeat, Poland would fight on and insist on having its whole territory back until its last Army or is destroyed and its last acre is occupied?

The Poles won't "reduce their expectations" once they lose many battles and Divisions to the Germans and the Germans stand triumphantly owning the corridor, but not yet Warsaw, Cracow, Lodz, Lvov, Pinsk, etc.?

Or because Germany would be so enraged at Poland's decision to fight instead of peacefully yield to Germany's "reasonable demands" that it decides Poland must be erased from Europe's map like a blemish and mad dog?
 
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