Nicholas II Loves Japan

Sicarius

May 11, 1891

Tsesarevich Nicholas Alexandrovich is in Japan and he is lovin' it. He got an awesome dragon tattoo and everything. [1]

He's been chilling at Lake Biwa when suddenly, on his way back to Kyoto, an aspiring assassin strikes - a wily Pole! [2]

Wounding the future Tsar with the first shot of his revolver, the assailant's arm is cleaved off by the sword of Japanese policeman Tsuda Sanzō. [3]

This cements the affair as the best vacation of all time. The soon-to-be Tsar takes Tsuda Sanzō as his personal bodyguard for life, he gets a lot of katanas and wallscrolls, the whole nine yards. This is to say, the complete opposite of our Japanophobic Nicholas II. How does this play out down the line in the old autocracy?

[1] OTL
[2] Just don't question it.
[3] OTL's attempted assassin.
 

Sicarius

OTL Nicholas hated Japan and considered the Japanese inferior. He widely pushed the idea that they were backwards and easy to conquer, and led Russia into a war that she lost badly, destabilizing the nation. This all played in to later instability and ultimately the Russian Revolution.
 
BBadolato

BBadolato

Sicarius said:
May 11, 1891

Tsesarevich Nicholas Alexandrovich is in Japan and he is lovin' it. He got an awesome dragon tattoo and everything. [1]

He's been chilling at Lake Biwa when suddenly, on his way back to Kyoto, an aspiring assassin strikes - a wily Pole! [2]

Wounding the future Tsar with the first shot of his revolver, the assailant's arm is cleaved off by the sword of Japanese policeman Tsuda Sanzō. [3]

This cements the affair as the best vacation of all time. The soon-to-be Tsar takes Tsuda Sanzō as his personal bodyguard for life, he gets a lot of katanas and wallscrolls, the whole nine yards. This is to say, the complete opposite of our Japanophobic Nicholas II. How does this play out down the line in the old autocracy?

[1] OTL
[2] Just don't question it.
[3] OTL's attempted assassin.
Click to expand...

I don't see two happening, you could always have Tsuda get sick or something. It's unclear about Tsuda's motivations which could be hatred of foreigners or derangement, have a different officer and the Otsu incident never happens.
 

Sicarius

Just make it any assassin prevented by Japanese police. The specifics of the incident don't matter, the question is more how does a Japan-loving Nicholas II change history.
 
Kome

Kome

I wondered why Imperial Japan never made gifting swords to foreign dignitaries a big deal. Seems like it would be one of those cool PR moves you expect from diplomacy (you give gifts, they give gifts, you both feel buttered up enough to sign a treaty).

But okay, there's the soft power aspect first of all, if it's publicly known Nicholas is a Japanphile and frequently exchanging telegraphs with Tokyo. The question then is how to turn it into hard results. The Trans-Siberian Railway was Nicholas' baby, and Russia had the expectation that as the meeting place between east and west an Asian pivot would elevate Vladivostok into one of the major cities in the world within the next century (I mean not exactly unreasonable. Most of the world lives in Asia, and they could hardly see that naval and air improvements would outstrip railroads). While that's not exactly opposed to alt-Tsar Nicholas, after all it means he can visit Japan more often, favoring Japan does mean taking actions that would seem contradictory to Russia's far-eastern interests.

Assuming Nicholas is able to properly implement his interest into policy, the basis for the Russo-Japanese relationship will probably be partitioning Manchuria & Korea into Russian and Japanese spheres while avoiding the Triple Intervention (meaning Japan keeps Port Arthur). Nicholas may then attempt to turn these foreign policy concessions into a Russo-Japanese alliance and beat Britain to the punch, but that's not guaranteed to happen and both Russia and Japan may not see partition as a viable long term solution. Both sides would feel time is on their side for a renegotiation of the pact, Japan as it modernizes and Russia as the Trans-Siberian expands.

That aside, then things get weird. Our main effect here is that we avert the Russo-Japanese War (otherwise there's no point really). That gives Russia more leverage and troops to suppress the 1905 Revolution with, but if they need to actually fight a war, they're going to be missing out on the reforms and experience from the R-J War. And come WW1 that's going to be bad.
 

PoorBoy

Kome said:
Assuming Nicholas is able to properly implement his interest into policy, the basis for the Russo-Japanese relationship will probably be partitioning Manchuria & Korea into Russian and Japanese spheres while avoiding the Triple Intervention (meaning Japan keeps Port Arthur). Nicholas may then attempt to turn these foreign policy concessions into a Russo-Japanese alliance and beat Britain to the punch, but that's not guaranteed to happen and both Russia and Japan may not see partition as a viable long term solution. Both sides would feel time is on their side for a renegotiation of the pact, Japan as it modernizes and Russia as the Trans-Siberian expands.

That aside, then things get weird. Our main effect here is that we avert the Russo-Japanese War (otherwise there's no point really). That gives Russia more leverage and troops to suppress the 1905 Revolution with, but if they need to actually fight a war, they're going to be missing out on the reforms and experience from the R-J War. And come WW1 that's going to be bad.
Click to expand...

Britain is going have fits with this Russo-Japanese Pact, as their whole strategy at this period from the Middle East, to South Asia, and the OTL Anglo-Japanese Alliance was to contain Russia and deny her the precious warm-water port.

Expect Britain to prop up China (or whatever remains of it) to counter Russia. If Britain ends up reaching an agreement with Germany to defend against Russia, we may as well see a different line of alliances that may fight during WWI.
 
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