Separately, what could English colonization look like under much clearer succession (emphasis post Henry VIII, but starting after Richard II):
1) Edmund (Mortimer) (1399-1425)
2) Richard III (York) (1425-1460)
3) Edward IV (York) (1460-1483)
4) Elizabeth I (York)/Henry IV (Tudor) (1483-1509) (She’s the rightful heir, but to fully stop the War of the Roses since a Queen would lead to uprisings, she marries Henry Tudor and is co-monarch with him. Her life extend to match his.)
5) Henry V (Tudor) (1509-1547) (Avoids the fall that changed his personality, and doesn’t divorce Catherine of Aragon, keeping him Catholic. Also enters into a bigamous marriage with Anne Boleyn.) (Pope was so desperate to stay on his good side he offered to bless a bigamous union.)
6) Henry VI (Tudor)/Mary (Tudor) (1547-1558) (In exchange for the bigamous union, Pope wanted Henry to legitimize his son and marry him to his half sister to avoid the divorce debacle. They’re co-rulers; his life extended to match hers.)
7) Elizabeth II (Tudor) (1558-1603)
8) Edward VI (Seymour) (1603-1612) (Due to a better relationship with her father and siblings, Elizabeth follows Henry V’s will and adopts Lady Katherine Grey, stabilizing inheritance of the English throne, which remains Catholic.)
9) William III (Seymour)/Arabella (Stuart) (1612-1660) (Union of main heirs with an offshoot branch, shuts out Jacobites forever.)
10) William IV (Seymour) (1660-1671)
11) Elizabeth III (Seymour) (1671-1697)
12) Charles (Bruce) (1697-1747) (Descendant of Robert.)
13) James (Brydges) (1747-1789) (With tons of butterfly nets, assuming the ARW happens on schedule, 13 Colonies would be lost, and 🇺🇸 born, under James.)
To restate the question, what could the British colonization of the Americas (particularly 13 Colonies) look like with this alternate succession in a Catholic UK (no full War of the Roses, and most likely butterflying the English Civil Warl)? (Basically, a much more stable and Catholic England with no major Irish rebellions, at least due to religion, while also avoiding the Spanish Armada, and keeping better relations with Continental Europe. Possible they adopt a more Latin structure to slavery and racial hierarchies and more latifundio style setups for agriculture, though mot sure how much of that is down to religion vs. feudalism/land reform in economics and proximity to Africa in terms of race. Also, not such a big deal with Protestant work ethic.)
Based off on this, what could Anglo-Franco relations look like if you butterflied away the 100 Years’ War? Now, a change to the English succession wouldn’t change that, but the change done to the English succession, done to the French succession would!
After Louis X died, there was debate over whether his daughter would inherit or his yet unborn child (posthumous son who died 5 days after birth). The French nobles, wishing to take power away from his daughter Joan, decided she wouldn’t inherit, and instead of establishing a regency for her, one of them just took the throne for himself. Once the Capets died out, it was argued that though women couldn’t inherit and rule, they could pass it on to their sons, which was denied since you couldn’t transfer something greater than what you’re entitled to. (How Edward III’s mother claimed the French throne on his behalf.)
What if that changed though? What if Louis X had lived long enough to witness the death of his son, and declared his daughter heir, preventing the (legal) challenges to her Joan’s rule, and butterflying the English claims to the French throne?
1) Joan I/II (Capet)/Philip V/III (Évreux) 1316-1349 (Last Capet. Ties France and Navarre forever. Joint rule, his life extended to match hers.)
2) Charles IV/I (Évreux) 1349-1387
3) Charles V/II (Évreux) 1387-1425
4) Blanche (Évreux)/John I/II (Trástamara) 1425-1479 (Joint rule, her life extended to match his.)
5) Francis Phoebus (Foix) 1479-1483 (Great-grandson.)
6) Catherine (Foix)/John II/III (Albret) (1483-1517) (Joint rule, his life extended to match hers. Both their lives extended by a few weeks to outlive their daughter Eleanor.)
7) Henry II (Albret) 1517-1555
8) Jeanne II/III (Albret)/Antoine (Bourbon-Vendôme) 1555-1572 (His life extended to match hers.)
9) Henry III (Bourbon) 1572-1610 (Follows OTL.)
10) Louis XI/II (Bourbon) 1610-1643
11) Louis XII/III (Bourbon) 1643-1715
12) Louis XIII/IV (Bourbon) 1715-1774
13) Louis XIV/V (Bourbon) 1774-1792
This unites on a permanent basis the Kingdoms of France and Navarre much earlier than IOTL (Henry III, IV IOTL). It might even prevent their conquest by Spain, but that’s secondary. The real issue is that with no major controversy over the succession, the English can’t claim the throne of France, meaning there’s no pretext for the Hundred Year’s War, which would be a huge boon for Anglo-Franco relations! Of course, they’ll have plenty of other opportunities to quarrel with each other (especially once colonialism gets in full swing), and they certainly won’t be best friends until about they time they were IOTL, but not having over a century’s worth of conflict has to count for something, right?
What’s really interesting about this succession are the French Wars of Religion, since Joanne II/III was a
Calvinist, while Henry III was a Protestant, and would directly inherit the throne ITTL, meaning he might not need to convert (though still might to keep the peace). The big irony of combining this and the English succession TL is that here, France is the Protestant superpower, while the English remain the Catholic superpower. So the religious conflicts between the 2 countries remain ITTL, just that the religions flip, and the rulers of France don’t claim to be head of their own church.
However, Henry’s son Louis had a strict Catholic upbringing. (How much of that was his father’s conversion, and how much of that was his mother being Marie De’ Medici, I’m not sure, and who’s to say ITTL, things don’t work out with Margaret of Valois? Though she was also Catholic.) Meaning France’s 2 Protestant rulers (55 years, 1555-1610) could just be a brief interruption in centuries of Catholic rule, a quirk of history ended by Henry’s assassination. (Also possible Jeanne never converts, though not sure how.)
This also means that if the general ebb and flow of history goes as IOTL (butterfly nets are
struggling, but still), and Napoleon comes to power, he won’t have as much pressure regarding heirs since he’ll only need an heir, not a boy specifically, though one would be preferred. (Seeing as how everyone from Henry III (IV IOTL) on is the same (obviously different due to chance and genetics, but still), the conditions for the French Revolution would be set in motion, and I don’t think there’s much this succession alone would do to change it, if at all.)
(Could also mean the places he conquers don’t adopt Salic law, and instead either keep or adopt male-preference primogeniture, which would apply to the German states, as well as Italy.)