Maybe The Horse Will Learn To Sing

Will Lucky

Conservatives - 289
Labour - 267
Lib Dems - 39
UKIP - 10
Greens- 4

Wasn't very successful last time if I recall, but ahh well we shall see this time around.
 

LancyIain

Okay, I've given it a bit of thought so here we go with my current prediction (I still reserve the right to change before the votes start to be counted):

Labour: 278 (22%)
Conservative: 267 (25%)
LibDem: 60 (18%)
UKIP: 9 (20%)
Green: 3 (13%)
SNP: 8 (the scandals combined with the increased vote for the Scottish Greens allow the SNP to pick up a couple of seats)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (ditto)
IKHH: 1 (I see no reason for this seat to change hands since the previous election)
Northern Ireland as you were in 2010, including Alliance holding their shock gain. If we're really lucky, DUP drop by one due in part to a UKIP surge in Northern Ireland, but I doubt it.
Respect: 1 (the dilution of the major parties vote allows them to get one MP elected. Then whenever the next election is they try to get enough candidates together for there to be a sixth lectern)
One seat is then left over for the speaker.

I'll go with a Labour minority government with LibDem confidence and supply until both parties get their leaderships sorted out, then negotiations possibly leading to a full coalition if they go well. That will depend on who the respective leaders are, but I'll go with the negotiations being a success and a coalition being formed with electoral reform as a high priority.

I don't expect to be proved right in the end though. I'm sure my lucky guesses have come to an end for this timeline.
 
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LancyIain

AlfieJ said:
Thought just popped into my head. If Camers loses two elections in a row. Won't he be in trouble?
Click to expand...

You're probably right. Not that the Conservatives have a chance of winning a majority though. So unless the LibDems bail Cameron out then that's a leadership struggle for all three big parties when the election's over then? And possibly UKIP too, if Farage gets into Parliament and is able to manage it. That would be interesting; a House of Commons where only the Greens, the nationalist parties and the Northern Irish parties have clear and continuous leadership.

Who would replace Cameron? Fox? I don't think his relationship with his advisor has become a problem for him since he never became a minister. Hague clearly doesn't want it. Grayling? Is there a likely candidate from the more centrist Tories?

This has just made me realise that even once the elections are done none of the party leaders are likely to find things easy. They really have been cursed to live in interesting time[line]s, haven't they?
 

Ulster

Well I suppose I might as well give it a go:

Labour: 276
Conservative: 270
Liberal Democrat: 59
UKIP: 11
Green: 3
SNP: 7
Plaid Cymru: 4
IKHH: 1
Speaker: 1

And on the Northern Irish seats I'd expect them to stay as they are. Without a serious attempt at Unionist unity coming together or something similar too little has changed and majorities are too solid for the seats to change hands.

Now if that catches on Fermanagh and South Tyrone could flip (it was very close indeed as it was), a few majorities could be shored up and Belfast South and Belfast East could be much more winnable.

UKIP to do a little better than they did in the OTL Assembly elections, breaking the 1% mark, maybe a decent run in South Down (where Henry Reilly got 5.6% of first preferences in the OTL Assembly elections - if UKIP attempt to make a point of running in all parts of the United Kingdom then he might get some decent support for a Westminster run) but little real impact.

Now to wait and see just how far off I am.
 
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Turquoise Blue

Turquoise Blue

LancyIain said:
Respect: 1 (the dilution of the major parties vote allows them to get one MP elected. Then whenever the next election is they try to get enough candidates together for there to be a sixth lectern)
Click to expand...
I think this is generally where AndyC is going. Six Lecterns (LabConLibDemUKIPGreenRESPECT) by 2016.

If you consider the Lib Dems right-wing, that's 3 left, 3 right.
 
AndyC

AndyC

Donor
Updated predictions:

For what it's worth, the average of predictions is now:
Con - 269
Lab - 275
LD - 57
UKIP - 11
Green - 5

predictions.png
 
AlfieJ

AlfieJ

Okay I'll put my seat count and be controversial.

Labour: 290
Conservative: 255
Lib Dem: 65
UKIP: 10
Green: 4
 

Alberto Knox

Some dubious calculations went into this, but you've got to be in it to win it:

Labour: 282
Conservative: 267
Lib Dem: 64
UKIP: 5
Greens: 2
Respect: 1
 

LancyIain

Well, I think we're up to 15 predictions now with probably more to come. Surely one of us must by luck end up getting pretty damn close to the result, though I don't expect anybody to get it spot on.
 
Plumber

Plumber

LancyIain said:
You're probably right. Not that the Conservatives have a chance of winning a majority though. So unless the LibDems bail Cameron out then that's a leadership struggle for all three big parties when the election's over then? And possibly UKIP too, if Farage gets into Parliament and is able to manage it. That would be interesting; a House of Commons where only the Greens, the nationalist parties and the Northern Irish parties have clear and continuous leadership.

Who would replace Cameron? Fox? I don't think his relationship with his advisor has become a problem for him since he never became a minister. Hague clearly doesn't want it. Grayling? Is there a likely candidate from the more centrist Tories?

This has just made me realise that even once the elections are done none of the party leaders are likely to find things easy. They really have been cursed to live in interesting time[line]s, haven't they?
Click to expand...

For this reason I doubt the Tories will get a plurality of seats / get in government.
 

RPW@Cy

288 Conservative
269 Labour
43 LibDem
9 UKIP
3 Green

And 16 SNP - there's been no mention as far as I can recall on this TL of the Scottish Parliament election on 5 May 2011, but I'm assuming it happened as OTL, complete with Salmond winning a supposedly unwinnable absolute majority. There should therefore be some honeymoon effect going into a UK general election only six weeks later...

Prediction - Lab/LibDem minority coalition with SNP on supply and confidence subject to an ironclad commitment to an independence referendum on Salmond's choice of date, question and terms and conditions.
 

LancyIain

The Scottish elections happened back on page 10. The SNP didn't do anything like that well, primarily because Labour played up Brown while the LibDems and Tories didn't collapse. They're still the biggest single party in the Scottish Parliament but without a majority. You might want to revise your prediction in light of this.

RPW@Cy said:
288 Conservative
269 Labour
43 LibDem
9 UKIP
3 Green

And 16 SNP - there's been no mention as far as I can recall on this TL of the Scottish Parliament election on 5 May 2011, but I'm assuming it happened as OTL, complete with Salmond winning a supposedly unwinnable absolute majority. There should therefore be some honeymoon effect going into a UK general election only six weeks later...

Prediction - Lab/LibDem minority coalition with SNP on supply and confidence subject to an ironclad commitment to an independence referendum on Salmond's choice of date, question and terms and conditions.
Click to expand...
 
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