First of all: Why? What sense does it make for Mexico to sell one of its provinces to a country that far away from it?
Japan buys Baja California in the late 80s
- Thread starter Fernsong
- Start date
Literally what I wondered about as well.Are we talking 1980s here or 1880s
The Tale of a Mexican, a German, and a Japanese who crossed the oceans
Three crossed lives: The first Japanese migration to Mexicowww.eluniversal.com.mx
Miguel de la Madrid was an abject idiot, but if he even seriously considered such a thing they would have dragged him out of Los Pinos and hung him. After the Mexican War of the 19th Century, the French invasion, etc., the Mexicans are very sensitive about any encroachment on their sovereignty. Now could the Japanese by Cabo San Lucas and other resort towns? Probably. I wonder how this would affect the drug trade, if the Yakuza would muscle in on the territory of the Sinaloa cartel?
They wouldn't need to annex those resort towns, they could just buy out the management of the resorts and the other most lucrative businesses there and turn it into Japanese-owned corporate fiefs.
Yeah, Japan buying Baja California is some kind of urban legend that keeps popping up from time to time. If such offer truly existed, the government did the better they could to hide all information about it.
Anyway, I think it would be an interesting scenario. For starters, if Japan absorbed all Mexico's debt, that would mean no "Efecto Tequila", thus no Mexican Peso devaluation and a way more stable economy in the next two decades, therefore a stronger Mexico in ATL. But I am sure such move would kill PRI's hegemony way earlier. Selling land is basically a taboo in Mexican politics, besides the PRI of the 80s was nowhere near as powerful and popular as it was back in the times of the "Mexican Miracle", thus probably losing the elections in the early 90s instead of the 2000s, like in OTL happened.
Now, in Japan's side, that's harder to guess. I agree with the majority here who said it would be such a waste of money for them, but I also have heard the Japanese crisis of the 90s was caused, in part, by not enough cash circulating in the local markets, or circulating in the same kind of business/circles for decades. So maybe (and paradoxically) such move would be good to the economy in the long run, as they having Baja would mean new markets and new areas of opportunity for alternative kind of investments.
Anyway, I think it would be an interesting scenario. For starters, if Japan absorbed all Mexico's debt, that would mean no "Efecto Tequila", thus no Mexican Peso devaluation and a way more stable economy in the next two decades, therefore a stronger Mexico in ATL. But I am sure such move would kill PRI's hegemony way earlier. Selling land is basically a taboo in Mexican politics, besides the PRI of the 80s was nowhere near as powerful and popular as it was back in the times of the "Mexican Miracle", thus probably losing the elections in the early 90s instead of the 2000s, like in OTL happened.
Now, in Japan's side, that's harder to guess. I agree with the majority here who said it would be such a waste of money for them, but I also have heard the Japanese crisis of the 90s was caused, in part, by not enough cash circulating in the local markets, or circulating in the same kind of business/circles for decades. So maybe (and paradoxically) such move would be good to the economy in the long run, as they having Baja would mean new markets and new areas of opportunity for alternative kind of investments.
During the 1980s Japan invested heavily in the US. The results were very mixed. Some items like manufacturing plants had a decent long term return and survived the late 1980s crash/adjustment. Others, like frivolous prestige investments such as art or prestige real estate lost heavily. A example from the Wall Street Journal in the mid 1990s described ho a Japanese led investment group purchased Rockefeller Center for $ 3.8 billion mid 1980s. in the early 1990s they were selling at $ 1.9.
I don't think a 1980s purchase of Baja gives Japanese investors enough time to build a solid foundation. The economic adjustment of the late 80s and the underlying causes is liable to leave the investors in pain. As in the US they may be ready to accept fire sale prices and go home to ponder what happened.
Last edited:
So what would they do if they buy Baja but the crisis still happens? Keep the land in hopes the crisis doesn't last long? Sell the land to the US? Organize an auction and sell the land to the highest bidder?
This is my question. What is theere in Baja that would make anyone want to own it. Maybe if they find some valuable minerals but except for a possible few enclaves that have good beaches/vacation destinations why would anyone want that generally desolate peninsula?
Now an interesting story line may be made if for some reason the territory were transferred in the 19th century to Germany and the Japanese scooped it up with the other German possessions in the Pacific in WWI .......
Let's say this scenario is realised. The question is what will happen to the mexicans living in Japanese Baja California? Will they become much richer than the citizens of Mexico?
I mean, Mexico in the early 90s was a very poor country, Japan is one of the richest countries in the world.
I guess illegal migration across the Gulf of California to Baja California would be a problem for the japanese maritime border guards.
Threat Definitely, La Paz will become a resort center for japanese office workers.
I mean, Mexico in the early 90s was a very poor country, Japan is one of the richest countries in the world.
I guess illegal migration across the Gulf of California to Baja California would be a problem for the japanese maritime border guards.
Threat Definitely, La Paz will become a resort center for japanese office workers.
Deleted member 2186
They become second rate citizens force to work in the homes of their Japanese overlords, ore many will try to head to Mexico leaving Japan with a long thin dessert.
Even then it wouldn’t possibly survive the 30s or 40s. Sooner or later Japan and the USA were going to throw down. Actually, if anything, WW2 goes worse for the Axis. Hard for isolationists to argue for letting the Army rot when there’s a rival on the other side of the border from LA.
Last edited:
Agreed but it would at least make an interesting semi-plausible into the 20th century.
You also have the issue that the US is NOT going to be perticullarly happy with the Idea of Japan now being a North American country.
Keep in mind that we are talking 39- to 49 years after PH, so the majority of the country still remember that and a huge chunk of it gfought in WW2 or had relatives that did. So while relations with Japan were OK they were. it exactly so friendly that the US wanted Japan to move in.
Add in that the trade situation and the apearent wealth that Japan was tossing around made a lit of folks nurvous. At oeast as much as China does now. And this will result in the situation getting worse.
Frankly you probably get the US looking at imposing massive restrictions on trade and such with Japan. So much so that Japans economy will be royally screwed.
And if Mexico goes through with selling Baja to Japan it can kiss goodbye its trade with the US. Adios Nafta. and you. probably see a wall and massive patrols along the boarder as well as the US is not going to be pleased that Mexico sold Baja to an Asian power.
So assuming that the Mexicans dont hang their own government for selling it then they orobably chase them out. fir tanking the Mexican Economy. As Ronny is not going to sit back and say “oh well Japan i guess you got us” He IS going to take action. Even if it is just to lock down all dealings with Mexico and Japan and idds are anyone that deals with the US and Japan/Mexico will have to pick a side as well.
No this woulkd get very ugly very fast, assuming the idiots supporting this idea in Mexico don't ”accidentaly” die or otherwise lose power.
Keep in mind that we are talking 39- to 49 years after PH, so the majority of the country still remember that and a huge chunk of it gfought in WW2 or had relatives that did. So while relations with Japan were OK they were. it exactly so friendly that the US wanted Japan to move in.
Add in that the trade situation and the apearent wealth that Japan was tossing around made a lit of folks nurvous. At oeast as much as China does now. And this will result in the situation getting worse.
Frankly you probably get the US looking at imposing massive restrictions on trade and such with Japan. So much so that Japans economy will be royally screwed.
And if Mexico goes through with selling Baja to Japan it can kiss goodbye its trade with the US. Adios Nafta. and you. probably see a wall and massive patrols along the boarder as well as the US is not going to be pleased that Mexico sold Baja to an Asian power.
So assuming that the Mexicans dont hang their own government for selling it then they orobably chase them out. fir tanking the Mexican Economy. As Ronny is not going to sit back and say “oh well Japan i guess you got us” He IS going to take action. Even if it is just to lock down all dealings with Mexico and Japan and idds are anyone that deals with the US and Japan/Mexico will have to pick a side as well.
No this woulkd get very ugly very fast, assuming the idiots supporting this idea in Mexico don't ”accidentaly” die or otherwise lose power.
Im wondering about how the Japanese deal with the problems of the Mexican drug gangs. Baja was not a hot spot of the drug trade, but Japanese money will bring attention.
As elsewhere, sell the frivolous and grossly unprofitable stuff and reorganize finance and management of the rest. That still may not be enough. A heavy investment in Baja my sink the Japanese investment culture and banks further than OTL, forcing yet more sales. OTL the Japanese had a cow when foreign barbarians like Jimmy Buffet acquired noticeable voting shares in a few Japanese corporations in the 1990s. If the Baja Bust forces liquidation of yet more assets into foreign investors hands we might see the Japanese wailing and covering themselves with ashes.
This will definitely put a challenge in the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Toyata Hilux technical trucks for the cartels?