I can't understate that a powerful notion of Italy joining the war on the side of the Central Powers would result in a Central Powers Victory and the consequences of world coming from that. But I barely anyone exploring the opposite direction of the Central Powers still losing with Italy on their side. What would the consequences of Italy joining the Central Powers in a Post WW1 world that still had the Central Powers losing?
Italy joins the Central Powers but the Entente still Wins
- Thread starter Oba Cahokia
- Start date
I could see the loss causing separatism movements to flare, especially in the South, and it might be enough to witness a French-backed secession of Naples/Sicily. This isn't guaranteed, of course--Bavarian separatism went nowhere, after all--but Italy is also a weaker nation than Germany.
They'd lose their territories in Eritrea and Somaliland, likely to France and Britain, respectively. They might keep Libya, but that depends on the circumstances of their surrender and when they joined the war. If not, France and Britain might split it.
Italy will lose the Dodecanese to Greece. Istria will probably end up as part of Yugoslavia from the beginning, unless somehow this causes enough ripples for Austria to keep their coastline and Slovenia. I could see some voices to keep a stronger Austria as a buffer between resurgent Italian and German powers.
They'd lose their territories in Eritrea and Somaliland, likely to France and Britain, respectively. They might keep Libya, but that depends on the circumstances of their surrender and when they joined the war. If not, France and Britain might split it.
Italy will lose the Dodecanese to Greece. Istria will probably end up as part of Yugoslavia from the beginning, unless somehow this causes enough ripples for Austria to keep their coastline and Slovenia. I could see some voices to keep a stronger Austria as a buffer between resurgent Italian and German powers.
Libya was in a rather successful rebellion during world war 1 so it will be lost.
True, but would France and Britain recognise that or just take the chance to claim it for themselves?
RamscoopRaider
Donor
The main issue is that for all we joke about Italy, they were a great power and their performance was significant. Italy basically made it very difficult for Austria-Hungary to perform independent offensive operations, and basically gave Serbia an extra 6 months and delayed Gorlice-Tarnow that long., as well as delaying Bulgarian entry and probably ensuring that Romania joined the Entente. Change all of these and Russia is crippled 6-9 months ahead of schedule, Austria-Hungary does not take that killing blow, and there is a lot more pressure on the Western Front, and this is just with a neutral Italy.
It's still possible, but you basically need Italy to join in during August 1914 and then Germany to suffer disasters in the East and West (no Tannenburg, nastier loss on the Marne) which means Italy's troops basically only stabilize the fronts. Then you have the issue that the CP can't replace Italy's coal imports from the UK, so Italy does not really add much firepower to the mix. Russia probably suffers worse, but France and the UK are probably in an OTL or better position by the time the US joins in, and from that point have difficulty losing
A CP Italy means that there is no Isonzo front, and the Italian navy makes supplying Salonika impractical. As a result Austria is only fighting on the Serbian front, which almost certainly closes much earlier without the Isonzo, and the Russian front, which probably ends on time and without a Brusilov style disaster. Austria-Hungary is probably the last of the CP Great Powers standing and when Germany, Italy and the Ottomans surrender is in control over all of her territory while occupying Serbia and parts of Russia. France and the UK don't really care about A-H, the US does not give a shit, so A-H probably only has to make minor concessions to Serbia as nobody want to spend an extra six months fighting them to enforce a harsh peace
In any case Italy is likely not to be resurgent. Joining the CP would not have been that popular and you will see lots of blaming the idiots responsible, leading to internal political instability. You also would have years of deprivation, as Italy is dependent on imports that the British blockade would stop, and there is a good chance that instead of Gallipoli and Salonika you have invasions of Sardinia and Sicily that wreck those territories. So Italy is likely an economic basket case
It's still possible, but you basically need Italy to join in during August 1914 and then Germany to suffer disasters in the East and West (no Tannenburg, nastier loss on the Marne) which means Italy's troops basically only stabilize the fronts. Then you have the issue that the CP can't replace Italy's coal imports from the UK, so Italy does not really add much firepower to the mix. Russia probably suffers worse, but France and the UK are probably in an OTL or better position by the time the US joins in, and from that point have difficulty losing
Butterflies probably do probably result in a much, much stronger Austria
A CP Italy means that there is no Isonzo front, and the Italian navy makes supplying Salonika impractical. As a result Austria is only fighting on the Serbian front, which almost certainly closes much earlier without the Isonzo, and the Russian front, which probably ends on time and without a Brusilov style disaster. Austria-Hungary is probably the last of the CP Great Powers standing and when Germany, Italy and the Ottomans surrender is in control over all of her territory while occupying Serbia and parts of Russia. France and the UK don't really care about A-H, the US does not give a shit, so A-H probably only has to make minor concessions to Serbia as nobody want to spend an extra six months fighting them to enforce a harsh peace
In any case Italy is likely not to be resurgent. Joining the CP would not have been that popular and you will see lots of blaming the idiots responsible, leading to internal political instability. You also would have years of deprivation, as Italy is dependent on imports that the British blockade would stop, and there is a good chance that instead of Gallipoli and Salonika you have invasions of Sardinia and Sicily that wreck those territories. So Italy is likely an economic basket case
Italy in the CP will probably mean that Salonika is abandoned, Greece does not join the war (if not at the last second to take Rhodes) and Romania stays neutral.
With the Entente having to focus on Italy it means that by the time Germany and Italy surrenders (and they will surrender later, with no threat to Munich and all germans allies already out of the war) only maybe the Ottomans have surrender, but even that is a stretch as Istanbul is not directly threatened.
Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary are untouched and untouchable. They will be forced to restore Serbia and Montenegro but they won't lose much territory. Having won the war in the Balkans and in the East easily and not having to fight the Italians for years in the Alps probably means that tensions inside of A-H are far lower than in our timeline.
Also the Entente has no real reason to dismantle AH, cut it down to size yes, so the Eastern gains will be lost and Bosnia could go to Serbia but I doubt a Yugoslavia will be formed.
The same is true for Italy. France and the UK do not hate Italy and certainly do not consider it as a major major threat as Germany is. Depending on the fronts when the war ends France may gain some small cities in the Alps and either Sardinia or Sicily could get independence (though why would the Entente poison their future relationship with Italy like that is beyond me).
With the Entente having to focus on Italy it means that by the time Germany and Italy surrenders (and they will surrender later, with no threat to Munich and all germans allies already out of the war) only maybe the Ottomans have surrender, but even that is a stretch as Istanbul is not directly threatened.
Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary are untouched and untouchable. They will be forced to restore Serbia and Montenegro but they won't lose much territory. Having won the war in the Balkans and in the East easily and not having to fight the Italians for years in the Alps probably means that tensions inside of A-H are far lower than in our timeline.
Also the Entente has no real reason to dismantle AH, cut it down to size yes, so the Eastern gains will be lost and Bosnia could go to Serbia but I doubt a Yugoslavia will be formed.
The same is true for Italy. France and the UK do not hate Italy and certainly do not consider it as a major major threat as Germany is. Depending on the fronts when the war ends France may gain some small cities in the Alps and either Sardinia or Sicily could get independence (though why would the Entente poison their future relationship with Italy like that is beyond me).
If the Entente waste resources conquering the island I don't find it impossible that Sardinia could be granted independence.
A French (or british) Sardinia is impossible even if the Entente manage to reach Rome. At the time Sardinia was extremely poor and without any useful resource. The French would need to invest a lot of capital to make it profitable (and considering the fate of Corsica I doubt it will happen) and the only advantage they could again is the strategic position that is not even that good, as with Corsica France can already strike Rome or have a connection with the Maghreb. Not to mention the fact that Great Britain will not like that.
It is pretty likely that CP Italy would make things for CPs bit easier. France and Britain would have one enemy state to deal and Austria-Hungary has one front lesser to worry so it can put more men to Serbia.
Not so sure if there is some strong separatis insurgency happening. More likely would be communist revolt. But not certainly dissolution of Italy á la Kaiserreich. And I don't think that France would bother for supporting that. It didn't do anything to help Bavarians and surely France had more grudge against Germany than against Italy.
Agree. In other hand it would be fun if Britain and France would manage to talk Ethiopia to invade Eritrea. And Libya would be divided. I can't see Entente allowing Italy to keep that. Eastern parts probably would are incorporated with Egypt but not so sure what France would do with its western part. Probably keep that as separate from Algeria and Tunisia.
Agree. Austria perhaps is allowed to keep Istria and Slovenia, altough Yugoslavia might has something saying over Slovenia. And not sure how big headache Slovene population would cause to Austria.
I can't see France and Britain allowing independent Libya. They don't want other colonies getting ideas. Or at best it would be just protectorate of Britain or France.
Unlikely unless Entente want severely and permanentally piss Italy. And would France even want Sardinia/Sardinia wanting to be independent? France perhaps could take Valle d'Aosta but hardly anything else. Or at least some more secured borderline so there would be just small changes.
Some type of Mandate, I’m not sure if France is going to want Fezzan in this time period.
The South won't have any communist revolution, it's the most underdeveloped region of Italy; only the North has a chance.
To be fair, I don't think anyone foresaw the Communist Revolution in Bavaria
Having the South of Italy have a Communist revolution is ASB, there wasn't one in the North IOTL and right-wing militias proved to be able to beat those who tried to do something, the South has basically no industries and is agrarian, with strong influence from the Church.
Proto-fascists were powerful enough to destroy any attempt IOTL and occupy Fiume/Rijeka, I doubt the communists will be able to win if Italy loses the war.
If Italy loses the war, it will face a dramatic economic and social dislocation paralleling that which occurred in Germany and Russia. Fascist repression of labor struggle is much more difficult without a victorious army and in the midst of general economic collapse.
This is interesting as while Somaliland would probably be fully annexed by Britain, I could see Eritreia being given to Ethiopia, especially if they join up with the Entente when Italy joins the CP meaning that Eritreia gets annexed earlier and likely doesn't develop the same separatist attitudes, plus a Fascist Italy will have a harder time invading Ethiopia since they'll have no springboard and Britain likely wouldn't allow them to use the Suez canal for that, so yet another invasion is butterflied away and Ethiopia can get a claim to fame that it defeated a European power twice.
Also, given that Libya was in full on revolt, I could see it being granted independence "overseen" by France and Britain that don't want the trouble of running the colony but want the oil in it, another interesting effect is that if ww2 still happens with a Fascist Italy around, there's no North African front(or at least, one that doesn't last long) because Italy will have no springboard in Africa to launch attacks into British Egypt, so it frees up troops to either support Greece or begin an early invasion of Italy