Gersdorff Suicidebombs Hitler, Goering, and Himmler, now what?

[Tresckow]

One of Henning von Tresckow's many plots to assassinate Hitler came close to success, though one that sticks out is the plot where Colonel Rudolf-Christoph von Gersdorff volunteered to load himself up with explosives and lead Hitler on a tour of a war museum in Berlin, timed to explode within ten minutes of Hitler's arrival. His plan was to then literally hug Hitler before the detonation so that he and Hitler would die, but unexpectedly, Hitler rushed through the museum in under 10 minutes, and Gersdorff ran to the bathroom to diffuse himself at the very last second. Hitler was also accompanied by Hermann Goering, Heinrich Himmler, Wilhelm Keitel, and Karl Doenitz.

If Hitler stuck to the anticipated schedule at the museum and Gersdorff managed to kill not just Hitler, but also Goering and Himmler, that's two of Hitler's obvious successors gone in one blast. The date was 21 March 1943, a little over a month since Stalingrad and two months after the Allies announced their "no conditions" proclamation in Casablanca, and Rudolf Hess has been in Britain for nearly two years now, meaning Hitler's backup successor is gone too.

Who takes control of Germany? Is this the most likely situation for the "Schwarze Kapelle" to oust the Nazi regime completely? Or would someone else, namely Joseph Goebbels or Albert Speer, be able to take up Hitler's mantle in his absence?

 

[Alex1guy]

I think this scenario is super interesting. With all the senior leaders out in one go, I imagine there is going to be a real scramble. I think you'd see a struggle between Borman, Goebells and maybe Muller?

 

[Tresckow]

I think this scenario is super interesting. With all the senior leaders out in one go, I imagine there is going to be a real scramble. I think you'd see a struggle between Borman, Goebells and maybe Muller?

The issue with Bormann is that his nickname "the Shadow" was very accurate to describe him. No one really knew who he was until after the war, both inside and outside of Germany, and the people that did know him didn't like him very much. I think Goebbels is probably the most likely to take control of the party, but even then, there are other technocrats and military officials who have better means to seize power than Goebbels.

 

[acgoldis]

Variations on this:

1. One or more of these Nazi leaders has to use the restroom at the same time. Does Gersdorff sacrifice himself to take out one of these secondary targets even though Hitler himself will survive?
2. The restroom is out of order or occupied. He has to either attempt to defuse the bomb in public (can he get away from everyone?) or be resigned to his fate. In that case, he has to follow Hitler around to try to get his autograph or something (and do so in a way which will not look suspicious).
3. Like scenario #2. The bomb detonates, but since the bomber isn't really in a position to hug Hitler, Hitler survives. Assume all the Nazis are badly injured.
4. Gersdorff is searched by the Nazi security prior to the tour and is caught.

 

[Catspoke]

Why wouldn't Zeitler, Guderian or some Junta of generals take over. Himmler and Georing are dead, so no one is taking over the SS and Luftwaffe private armies.

The armies are on the defence now.

All the German Allies are making peace deals with the Allies.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

How well positioned were the conspirators, Becks group, to take over on Hitlers death?

 

[Tresckow]

Why wouldn't Zeitler, Guderian or some Junta of generals take over. Himmler and Georing are dead, so no one is taking over the SS and Luftwaffe private armies.

The armies are on the defence now.

All the German Allies are making peace deals with the Allies.

A Junta is a likely outcome, curious if there's any way to know who was in Berlin that day since that would play a factor in who would seize power.

How well positioned were the conspirators, Becks group, to take over on Hitlers death?

It's not exactly clear. Valkyrie took extensive planning to lay out, and you don't want to rush planning a coup.

 

[Catspoke]

It would be interesting how the end in Africa plays out in this TL, a Junta could insist on an evacuation attempt in April, flying in supplies and out soldiers.

Or the Italian political situation could deteriorate quickly, could Mussolini just fly off to Spain seeing the handwriting on the wall, and early armistice, since minimal German soldiers in Italy that early.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Wasn't Guderian in the vicinity of Berlin around this time? IIRC his estates weren't far from the capital and he'd just been appointed Inspector General of Armoured Troops. Even if he isn't the leader of the junta in TTL, he'd certainly be a major figure IMO.

As for Italy, the loss of Hitler probably means that VEIII begins thinking more seriously about exiting the war. That could change things quite dramatically when the Allies decide to cross the Mediterranean.

 

[Garrison]

It has to be remembered that Tresckow's plans at this time were purely his own, he was not coordinating with the future Valkyrie plotters. Given the nature of this attack its probably not going to be clear who delivered the bomb and how, so if the Army were to move in to take control in the chaos there probably isn't going to be any great resistance.

 

[Catspoke]

Would a German military Junta offer to make terms with the Soviets on Russias 1914 boundaries as an incentive to make peace?? It might be worth it for both sides.

 

[Tresckow]

Would a German military Junta offer to make terms with the Soviets on Russias 1914 boundaries as an incentive to make peace?? It might be worth it for both sides.

It’s possible. People like to throw out “oh the Allies declared no conditional surrender, they can’t get a peace deal!” The reality is that diplomacy is fluid, and it has only been two months by that point. Governments break promises more often than they keep them.

Now, having said all that, Russia is probably the least likely of the big three to negotiate with Germany. The Germans will likely focus on holding the line in Russia while opening up talks with London and Washington while keeping Rome in the loop. If Germany is able to hold the line AND get a peace deal with Britain and America, then Russia would have to come forward, which may produce an interesting white peace. Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics as a buffer between Germany and Soviet Russia.

Which reminds me, depending on who is in charge of the Junta, I doubt they will be as fanatical as Hitler or Himmler when it comes to Aryanism. Eastern divisions would probably be raised as fast as possible in Poland, Ukraine, Belarus. Unless Goebbels somehow manages to declare himself as Führer, which if he does, Berlin falls by early 1944.

 

[Tresckow]

It has to be remembered that Tresckow's plans at this time were purely his own, he was not coordinating with the future Valkyrie plotters. Given the nature of this attack its probably not going to be clear who delivered the bomb and how, so if the Army were to move in to take control in the chaos there probably isn't going to be any great resistance.

It’ll leave people scratching their heads. I could imagine they would throw out something like Gersdorff was disillusioned/depressed and went crazy, and that was his justification, while waiting for the right moment to tell the truth that Hitler was a POS and Gersdorff sacrificed himself to save Germany. AFAIK Gersdorff didn’t write a suicide note or anything before going, so I doubt he’d leave any clues as to why he would do that.

 

[The Banker]

The problem with any Nazi timeline is that there are two camps of althistorians who will absolutely never agree with each other

One camp is the 'Germany was f***** by Nazis. Nazis were 100% going to lose and history is a train that runs on one road. German defeat was inevitable. There would be no peace and the only outcome is total German defeat'

Second camp is 'Germany could have won at many points in the war because they were more powerful individually'

But these two camps never ever agree
Its really hard to imagine a realistic scenario where Nazi Germany even survives WW2. Victory is obviously 100% impossible

 

[Whiteshore]

Unless Goebbels somehow manages to declare himself as Führer, which if he does, Berlin falls by early 1944.

What makes you say that happens if Goebbels becomes Fuhrer?

 

[gradje]

I remember years ago theorizing such a scenario as this for the sake of a HoI4 mod. I don't know if it was this assasination attempt that would've been the POD or a later one where Hitler visits the front near Kursk, but the idea was to get rid of Hitler and the Nazi's in 1943 to have Germany fight to some kind to compromise peace. The junta that would take over after Hitler would be very forthcoming with the West, promising to restore the pre war borders there. France and Italy however would end up split in some way, but the SRI would end up controlling much more of Italy than Vichy France would of France. All of Germany's efforts would come in the East, applying a total scorched earth policy whilst at the same time coming to some accomodation with the Polish Underground State to help them set up controll of Poland and become a buffer state, even if a totally destroyed one, because of their legitimacy to the Western Allies. In the end, the pre-Molotov-Ribbetrop borders would be restored with the exception of Lithuania being a part of Poland, the other Baltics being a part of the USSR and West Prussia as a part of Germany. The SS and the most hardcore of the Nazi's would survive the coup attempt and set up base in Czechia, where they'd continue to exist as Berlin has other priorities. The Balkan borders set up by Germany would also be maintained. We did not care for "realism" honestly, the idea was moreso to explore a interesting outcome of a POD where Germany may still have found a way out of the predicament it found itself in. France would lunge hard to the New Left for example as Germany was never cowed, but if it went full French philosopher Maoïst, it would give the opening for the Vichy remains to reestablish legitimacy. The exiled Yugoslav monarch would pull a Napoleon crossing into the Montenegrin statelet to assume leadership of the Chetniks and attempt to reestablish his throne and perhaps Yugoslavia. Thoughts?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

It has to be remembered that Tresckow's plans at this time were purely his own, he was not coordinating with the future Valkyrie plotters. Given the nature of this attack its probably not going to be clear who delivered the bomb and how, so if the Army were to move in to take control in the chaos there probably isn't going to be any great resistance.

True in the context of this particular attempt at assassination. Its been fifty + years since I read much about the multiple ongoing plots and groups. The Kriesau group may have been the longest running bunch, but Im unsure of their ability to influence the Army, or how realistic their political ideas were. The opposition were probing major figures like Rommel, ect... by January 1944, & probably earlier. But, its not clear to me how tightly organized or large a group they were were at that point. The lack of documentation, that so many of the plotters died by 1945, and their secrecy make it difficult to understand how powerful they actually were.

 

[Garrison]

The problem with any Nazi timeline is that there are two camps of althistorians who will absolutely never agree with each other

One camp is the 'Germany was f***** by Nazis. Nazis were 100% going to lose and history is a train that runs on one road. German defeat was inevitable. There would be no peace and the only outcome is total German defeat'

Second camp is 'Germany could have won at many points in the war because they were more powerful individually'

But these two camps never ever agree
Its really hard to imagine a realistic scenario where Nazi Germany even survives WW2. Victory is obviously 100% impossible

The fundamental issue is that the Nazis doing better than OTL is a big ask, close to impossible for most of the Nazi victory scenarios put forward, while having them fail is relatively easy. Simpler for a rock to roll down hill than to keep pushing it up.
The best that Germany can hope for in the OPs scenario is a relatively trouble free transition of power, but its far too late to negotiate with the Allies and if they do drag the war out then the Manhattan Project is waiting in the wings.

 

[raharris1973]

Now, having said all that, Russia is probably the least likely of the big three to negotiate with Germany.

Nope. Most likely. As totalitarian and autocratic - most flexible.

 

[Garrison]

Nope. Most likely. As totalitarian and autocratic - most flexible.

And it had been considered by both sides at various times. It was one of the scenarios that caused the most anxiety in Washington and London. Problem is that even if a ceasefire is agreed neither side can trust one another so most of the Heer still has to stay in the east and the Germans still need to loot the captured territory for food and slave labour, so the new regime isn't appreciably better than the old one unless they are willing to collapse their war machine.