The Panic of 1819 is said by some to mark the US's entry into the financial system of the world in terms of the boom-bust cycles.
Part of the problem was that the Napoleonic Wars messed thigns up a lot - and his return in 1815 meant that even that growing year was disrupted.
On the other hand, Tambora erupted in 1815, also, causing the Year Without A Summer in 1816. I would imagine Europe had as bad of a harvest as the U.S.?
So, if Napoleon loses a few years early - or just doesn't make it back from Elba - is the Panic earlier, too?
Could Henry Clay mount a challenge in 1820 if that's the case? A Panic lasting much of Monroe's first term would certainly inspire some to consider running against him - could DeWitt Clinton give it a go again?
Or, with the War of 1812 butterflied away by this - let's say Napoleon dies in one of his incursions into Spain in 1810-1811 - could aPanic come early enough to give the Federalists new life - with Clay perhaps reinventing them - in 1816? Yes, he seems mighty young, so maybe someone like John Quincy Adams instead, but it would be under Madison's watch that the economy slumped, meanign at the very least they might consider running someone, with the idea there, at least, of a national system of roads, etc., with jobs created by it. It's certainly not going to be the New Deal, but while the Federal government wasn't expected to do a lot, the National System could be made to seem very enticing in such a scenario.
Part of the problem was that the Napoleonic Wars messed thigns up a lot - and his return in 1815 meant that even that growing year was disrupted.
On the other hand, Tambora erupted in 1815, also, causing the Year Without A Summer in 1816. I would imagine Europe had as bad of a harvest as the U.S.?
So, if Napoleon loses a few years early - or just doesn't make it back from Elba - is the Panic earlier, too?
Could Henry Clay mount a challenge in 1820 if that's the case? A Panic lasting much of Monroe's first term would certainly inspire some to consider running against him - could DeWitt Clinton give it a go again?
Or, with the War of 1812 butterflied away by this - let's say Napoleon dies in one of his incursions into Spain in 1810-1811 - could aPanic come early enough to give the Federalists new life - with Clay perhaps reinventing them - in 1816? Yes, he seems mighty young, so maybe someone like John Quincy Adams instead, but it would be under Madison's watch that the economy slumped, meanign at the very least they might consider running someone, with the idea there, at least, of a national system of roads, etc., with jobs created by it. It's certainly not going to be the New Deal, but while the Federal government wasn't expected to do a lot, the National System could be made to seem very enticing in such a scenario.