So is the argument made here that the Russians *only* expelled masses of Crimean Tatar Muslims to the Ottoman Empire, because the Crimean War happened?
AFAIK (and I can be wrong) the Crimean Tatars were not “expelled” like the Circassians. They were leaving the area in the noticeable numbers on their own will all the way to the reign of AII who forbade this practice fearing depopulation of the peninsula. The main reason was, AFAIK, the economy: conquest of the peninsula by CII was followed by the massive land grants to the connected people who did not have a clue about specifics of a local agriculture, crafts, etc. The result was a destruction of (almost) self-sufficient economy and the locals simply had nothing to do. The change happened only in the late XIX when the government decided to turn the Crimea into a resort and wine-making area. A huge influx of the tourists produced boost for the local agriculture and provided other areas of employment.
To be fair, the Tatars had been semi-officially accused of a disloyalty and presumably there was a sharp increase of the emigration in 1860-63. But, I repeat, this was not a
government’s action. There was no single pro-/contra-official opinion. Then, again, the economics kicked in. During the CW the peninsula was under the military rule, aka, governed by the people who did not have a clue about the economic in general and the local specifics in particular as a result the area was devastated well beyond the theater of the military activities and, cherry on the top, the idiots in charge presumably dropped the traditional religious tolerance policy. Small wonder that the initial patriotic enthusiasm turned into a desire to get the hell out.
Otherwise Russia would have tolerated their continued residence in Crimea?
It did in OTL and when the region was turned into a resort, the (young male) Tatar guides were quite popular among the open-minded female tourists. 😉
Does that sound right to
@alexmilman and our other Russia experts?
See above.
How far back do we need to go to avert this refugee issue?
Avoid the CW or simply implement a comprehensive state policy instead of leaving too much of an initiative to the local administration and the military appointees to the civic administrative positions.
Simply avert the Allied invasion of Crimea itself, which only occurred after the Austrian ultimatum moved the scene of the Russo-Turkish fighting from the Danube and Thrace, by forcing Russian evacuation of the Danubian principalities?
I’m not sure if somebody can give a meaningful answer to the question what exactly NI forgot in the Danubian provinces.
Or only by averting Russo-Turkish fighting in 1853, and that decade, altogether?
This would be the best idea because the war had been quite idiotic on the Russian side and probably equally idiotic on the Turkish as well.
The only way I can think of averting Russo-Turkish fighting in 1853, is by continuing deference to the Eastern Orthodox Church of protection of Ottoman Christians and control of Holy Places, and rejecting French demands for Roman Catholic control of same. And that seems like it would invite French bombardment of Constantinople and French Marine landings in other Ottoman cities, possibly an occupation of Palestine.
To start a war in mid-XIX over the issue of who is going to have the keys to some “holy places” sounds like a pure insanity. The clergies involved could agree on some split and then get engaged in a regular fistfight over the disputed <whatever> as was happening in the late XX. 😂
Why would Russian Empire care about Palestine and other wastelands when it was still in a process of conquering Caucasus and the CA and trying to establish a border on the Amur? Well, not to mention the trifles like the obsolete manufacturing, falling state income preventing a possibility to modernize army and navy , the serfs issue hanging in a limbo, etc.
