Christopher of Denmark, Duke of Lolland lives

[The Professor]

So the heir to Denmark lives and sires heirs.
What are the repercussions?
Is a Kalmar equivalent still possible?
How is the Swedish succession impacted?
What happens to Norway?
What possibilities do you see ahead for Denmark?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

My thread on the same subject

@Bastiram, @Zulfurium @Jürgen @von Adler @Milites @Behemoth

 

[The Professor]

My thread on the same subject

@Bastiram, @Zulfurium @Jürgen @von Adler @Milites @Behemoth

Ah, see what happens when I don't search properly!
So to sum up:
Cadet Estrid line in Norway.
Continuing Mecklenburgs in Sweden.
Possible war between Estrid Denmark and Mecklenburg Sweden over Norway.

 

[Bastiram]

Personally, I think what happens in Norway and to Oluf is crucial in such a scenario, does it fall into the hands of Margrete? the sister of Christopher. Or does Olaf grow up and manage to distance himself from his mother. Does he want to? does she even get a regency. So many questions

I still like my idea about Estridsen Cadet-lines in both Norway and Sweden, however, these solve nothing and in time, maybe earlier, maybe later. The Swedish nobility will likely dispose of their Estridsen King. This will likely draw in Denmark, which might or might not be strong enough to place the disposed Estridsen back on the throne.

To put it simply:

Sweden has a strong nobility, that wants a king they can rule over.

Denmark has returned to a position of strength and is challenging the Hansa for domination in the Baltic. I think the best word to describe it as, would be Opportunistic.

Norway is in a precarious position with likely an underage king that might have died from Brugada Syndrome.

Or at least there is some people that have said that a bunch of Danish kings died of this, I can't comment on the validity of the thing.

 

[von Adler]

Sweden has an even stronger peasant estate - until 1280 the peasants were required by law to own and train with arms and armour, and while that duty had been replaced with knights with the Alnsö law 1280, the peasants retained arms and continued to train actively with them. They hold economical (through their control of roughly half the arable soil in the country), political (through their place in the estates parliament) and military (through the strong peasant militias) power that Danish and continental serfs do not. And as history shows, they were mortally afraid of sliding into serfdom like their Danish brethren and would risk their lives in revolt after revolt to protect their old laws and rights.

The Swedish nobility, courtesy of Bo Jonsson (Grip) were strong compared to royal power, but not compared to peasant power. 1280 there were around 100 knights in Sweden. They never became more than 200 at any given time (although there were a lot of unknighted nobility - svennar/squires - of which Bo Jonsson (Grip) was one) and since only the King could knight someone in Sweden, in 1471 there was 1 knight in all of Sweden - Sten Gustavsson (Sture) who was the one fighting the Danish King.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

The Swedish nobility, courtesy of Bo Jonsson (Grip) were strong compared to royal power, but not compared to peasant power. 1280 there were around 100 knights in Sweden. They never became more than 200 at any given time (although there were a lot of unknighted nobility - svennar/squires - of which Bo Jonsson (Grip) was one) and since only the King could knight someone in Sweden, in 1471 there was 1 knight in all of Sweden - Sten Gustavsson (Sture) who was the one fighting the Danish King.

So essentially, the king could play the commons off against the nobility?

 

[Milites]

Short answer: butterflies galore!

Slightly longer answer:

Valdemar IV had managed to restore the monarchy's prestige, strength and confidence after the disastrous interregnum of the 1340s. When he dies in 1375, Christopher will be in his early thirties. He has amble experience in government as well as military matters and - given the accomplishments of his father and sister IOTL - not an inconsiderable amount of talent. The transfer of power is thus most likely a far more streamlined affair compared to OTL which, all things being equal, puts Christopher in a stronger position than Margaret in OTL.

The feud between the Swedes and their Mecklenburger kings will still be an issue, although the spillover in Denmark would be lesser (Valdemar IV had in OTL promised his grandson by Ingeborg, Albrecht IV, that he would succeed him. This led to a large part of the German-born fief-holders in Denmark refusing to acknowledge Margaret). Whether or not the headstrong Swedish nobles call in Christopher to rid them of their German sovereign is anyone’s guess.

Margaret still rules as regent for her son in Norway, but when (if) he croaks I’m at a loss what would happen. Most likely, Bogislav (Eric of Pomerania) is chosen as heir. He could still be an acceptable monarch for the Swedes given his connection to the House of Mecklenburg.

 

[von Adler]

So essentially, the king could play the commons off against the nobility?

That is what happened historically in the 16th and 17th centuries.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

That is what happened historically in the 16th and 17th centuries.

Could it happen here?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

That said, might Hakon VI not live longer (or at least father more children)? It was a few months after her wedding to Hakon VI that Christoph died, so things might (not necessarily) be different, no?

 

[von Adler]

Could it happen here?

Of course. But the OTL centralisation of Sweden undet Gustav Eriksson (Vasa) could happen partially because he was a syperb administrator, partially because he was a shrewd diplomat with a thumb on the pulse of Sweden and its unique power structure, partially because Kristian II eradicated a lot of the high nobility competition in Stockholm's bloodbath 1520 and partially because the long clusterfuck of a civil war that had been the Kalmar Union had people in general yearn for strong, stable leadership to bring peace. It was fear of a return of war that allowed Gustav to push through to make the Swedish throne heraditary rather than elective in 1544.

 

[The Professor]

I've had a few more thoughts on this.
I don't see much changing in Norway, Margaret is regent for her son Olaf who then dies and she promotes her infant grandnephew Eric/Boguslaw. The Swedes invite Albert of Mecklenburg in then ask the Danes for help getting rid of him.
It's who the Swedes replace Albert with that's at issue. An infant would allow Bo as regent but when adult c1400 Norway and Sweden joined would be at odds with Denmark. So I suspect Christopher recognises Eric of Pomerania as king of both but his son then supports say John of Mecklenburg, Albert's nephew, or Albert's apparent second son Albert, as King of Sweden but recognises Eric as King of Norway. Perhaps this a result of a general war and Eric gets a daughter of Christopher as a condolence.