1990- Return of the Baathists
Background- Gas Glut?
The last few years have not been well over for the fossil fuel industry. The exposure over the impact of fossil fuel usage on the climate along with the attempts at suppressing that information to maintain profits have become a larger influence on global and domestic policy than most people expected. With the US having focused over to phasing it out by various means (expanding nuclear power, changing infrastructure to reduce petrol usage, etc), various other nations began doing the same. Coal was difficult though becoming more possible thanks to nuclear along with investigation into other power sources, including tidal and geothermal. Beyond energy generation, its usage in the production of steel was also being examined on viable alternatives. If nothing else, coal was looking the most likely to be phased out, though work remained, especially in less developed countries though the focus remained on the current using nations.
Petroleum and natural gas meanwhile were a little more complicated. Natural gas had a plentiful number of uses, numerous to where even if some of its current uses were eliminated, it could shift to other ones or perhaps take over some. Beyond domestic heating and power generation, it could be used as transportation fuel, ammonia and hydrogen production and various other aspects. As such, it could be shifted around and find new usage during the transition phase. In fact, various natural gas processing locations and operations began work on switch of focus to remain relevant, especially to possibly replace petroleum. Petroleum, while quite important over with its usage in fuels for global transportation and other uses such as in plastics, was also targeted to be phased out over time. While this would be a long time aways, the progress was still happening and it would be having rammifications on many nations.
For some nations, such as with Iran, it would be about expandng and diversifying the economy into many sectors while focusing on renewables and infrastructure. Growing ties with the Americans were helping here. However, for other nations, things were complicated. OPEC would be one of the biggest hit here as they now had to balance the seemingly impossible tightrope with balancing prices. What didn't help matters was how the oil price problems of the 1970s had forced people to earlier start facing these problems and recognize the need to transition from dependence of oil, with the Americans' case over in 1985 (around the same time the Saudis slashed the prices) cementing the necessity to accelerate the endeavors. Unsurprisingly, OPEC became quite nervous as the clock was now ticking. They would need to start shifting their economies away from heavy petrol export dependence. But that was easier said than done; many of them relied disproportionately on their oil and while they did not need to shut down on the spot, they would be facing an uphill battle to do so. Moreso, it would require massive amounts of investment and changes over how they did things... and many were unsure if they would actually be able to do so.
Baathists Reborn
The Baathists have lost their way since the 1960s, especially with Saddam and Assad creating their own subideologies from them and being based on themselves. However, what happens to such an ideology when the leader in the center of it all is gone? Iraq lost against Iran over in their war and Iran would help set up a new but still secular state over in Iraq. Not all of the army bowed their heads in defeat though, as numerous groups of them including some escaped commanders would flee south, seemingly disappearing over into outskirts and hide. All but unable to do anything but see the world change in front of them. Pakistan, the last prominent bastion of "Islamism" would collapse in their war against Afghanistan and India, their people having their faith in the idealogy practically broken and the nation on life support from the United States as and the Americans trying to find a good long term solution. Afghanistan manging to modernize more with the coordination of their two major parties and the growing smaller parties. Israel and Jordan successfully creating an agreement with most of the West Bank going to Jordan while Gaza becomes an autonomous state and Jerusalem an international city. All while the Middle East petrolstates have been rocked by the changing economic direction in accelerated rejection of fossil fuels.
As such, the remnant forces who escaped Iraq now had to face this new future and figure their place. Saddamism was cast now to the ground and destroyed and Assadism proved to be little more than loyalty to the ruling family over in Syria. "Where did things go wrong?" they asked themselves. However, as time went by, the forces began regrowing and rebuilding themselves. They would secure some attention from Afghanistan, discussing ideology, means and the way forward with the National Revolutionary Party and the PDPA. They were inspired and they began going back to basics with their ideals of a pan-Arab secular state. Additionally, they had to take account the new order of the world along with the current status. The Soviets were having to change themselves or fall apart as seen with the loss of their sphere while the Chinese have done the same and even the Americans began their change and dealing with problems. Meanwhile, Arabia remained divided between various states despite their commonalities and many of them under the control of sharifs and emirs under absolute monarchy, a situation that they viewed as a slight. As such, from the shadows, they began regrouping, preparing and regrowing. The Baathists would fight once more for their dream or die trying. And what better time since pan-Islamism would become all but discredited with its role in Pakistan's decline and defeat.
Beyond having gone back to basics, they learned from their mistakes and observed what has worked so far and what could be modified. Afghanistan was something of a good model as the NRP mellowed somewhat and worked decently with the PDPA. Even Turkey provided some influence there, even with the Turks' increasing unstabiltiy with the Kurds and the growing frustration of the Europeans and Americans in regards to that. And there were some opportunities for them to go and select. Yemen had just reunited and was on shaky ground. The end of the Islamist government in Pakistan sent shockwaves among those similar-minded over in Saudi Arabia, further stroking strife within the popualce against the House of Saud, already in trouble due to the concentration of wealth among the nobility, increasing the resentment and frustration among the people. Even with Islamism's downfall, this did not make the frustration go away and indeed, instead new outlets would be needed for the outrage of the people. It was a unique opportunity that the Baathists saw. However, they could not do anything as they were now... they would need a new base to establish themselves... and one nation got their interest... Qatar.
Situation in Qatar
Qatar was one of the minor nations in Arabia not absorbed by the House of Saud, over on a small peninsula in the Persian Gulf and next to the United Arab Emirates. Like their neighbors, they have become rich and powerful through their fossil fuel sources, that of petroleum and natural gas. They were also under an absolute monarchy that enforced sharia law over in the people of their nation, with everything they came with that. Qatar, like the various other nations, were becoming increasingly treated with scrutiny, primarily because of the human rights concerns regarding the treatment of the South Asian migrant workers. This investigation was part of a greater trend of reporters investigating more misdeeds and controversies all across the world, which began over in the late 1980s. Qatar also nearly underwent a coup in the 1980s when the Emir of the time Khalifa bin Hamad Al Thani would choose his son, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, to be his successor rather his brother, Suhaim bin Hamad Al Thani. Suhaim in response planned a coup over against his brother in 1985, having his own weapon cache and supporters in the north, though would die of a heart attack before he could put his plan into action. Some of Suhaim's sons meanwhile would be imprisoned some time after. This was due to their assassination attempt on Ghanim Al Kuwari, the Minister of Information and Culture, blaming Kuwari for not being prompt with medical attention. Ironically, one of Suhaim's sons would end up replacing Kuwari as Minister of Information and Culture in 1989, that being Hamad bin Suhaim Al Thani.
Meanwhile, Hamad had been leading the Supreme Planning Council, who's role was to establish Qatar's basic economic and social policies. Unsurprisingly, this role became alot more difficult due to the need to shift away from petroleum exporting in the long term. This in spite of the fact that the nation would need to rely on it for further growth and modernization efforts in the nation. Hamad's job was growing more frustrating since he was not the one in charge. This was adding some growing antagonism over with his father. Qatar was doing pretty well for most part, but there were cracks that could be exploited by potential groups. Not to mention that they were relatively small and could possibly be dealt with, if needing the help of the proper leadership or at least the symbol in order to do so.
And from near Kuwait, forces began heading south and east over to Qatar...