What would it take for the Republic of the Rio Grande to succeed in splitting off from Mexico? Perhaps even end up joining Texas in a Republic that is not part of the US.
AHC:Republic of the Rio Grande survives
- Thread starter big_ben_mi
- Start date
Not necessarily. The two republics could join together without bothering to settle the question of the pre-union boundary, as long as it wasn't a federal union where they'd need to decide the interstate border. And, I see no reason for this to be a federal union - Texas got along quite nicely with a unitary central government and local counties (the old Mexican municipalities.)
I have studied this extensively for a Texas TL that I'm writing and I'm sorry to say that there is really no way for this to work. There is a slight chance during the French-Mexican Pastry War in 1838 but, apart from Texas and the Yucatan (maybe) almost all of the other rebellions in that time period that have occurred in Mexico were political infighting and not the start of balkanization. They were Reformers, not Revolutionaries is what I'm trying to say. I recommend these resources if you want to read about it though!
REPUBLIC OF THE RIO GRANDE by Mike Coppock
REPUBLIC OF THE RIO GRANDE by Milton Lindheim
AFTER SAN JACINTO -by Joseph Milton Nance
There is a Pdf of the first one that is really nice, but I can't find it right now. I do have it downloaded though, PM me if you'd like it.
REPUBLIC OF THE RIO GRANDE by Mike Coppock
REPUBLIC OF THE RIO GRANDE by Milton Lindheim
AFTER SAN JACINTO -by Joseph Milton Nance
There is a Pdf of the first one that is really nice, but I can't find it right now. I do have it downloaded though, PM me if you'd like it.
Santiago Vidaurri lobbied for the independence of Río Grande, but being in a place where there was a severe lack of manpower and resources to wage war didn't helped them. However, at the end he would outlive his republic once either Santa Anna smashes him and his pathetic army, or Mexico democratizing and the rest of the Rio Grande politicians joining back. The Rio Grande republic was more or less an attempt at sticking it to Santa Anna because of the abrogation of the 1824 constitution, and its army was way too small to even be a credible fighting force.
As Texian just mentioned, the issue is that none of the heads behind the Rep of Rio Grande (Llano and Ampudia, particularly) actually had the intention of seceding. It was a ruse to say "up yours" to Santa Anna and his centralist policies. The threat of the US swallowing them up, and their own border dispute with Texas was enough to keep them from trying anything for real.
Now assuming that the Pastry War goes seriously awry to the point of full collapse in Mexico's federal goverment, and other serious repercussions throughout the Republic. In such an extreme case they might change their minds and give it a go.
Joining with Texas is a resounding "hell eff no!" on both sides. For starters the Texians wouldn't want more Mexicans on their borders, secondly there would be an ongoing border dispute over the Nueces Strip. Technically speaking, the Strip is still part of Tamaulipas and the capital of Rio Bravo Rep. is Laredo, which is located North of the river. Texas resisted Santa Anna witha lot of luck and thanks to Santa Anna's own incompetence. But Vidaurri, Llano, Ampudia, and company where resolutely smarter than him. Texas cannot, by itself, win on the offensive. The Riobravenses just have to hold on to Laredo and Matamoros long enough to keep the Nueces Strip. Because Laredo is the capital, I can't see them giving up easy. Ampudia gave the US quite the fight during the siege of Monterrey in OTL's Mexican American War - surely they can withstand anything Texas sends.
The bigger issue occurs when, and if, Texas joins the US. Will the US respect the Rio Neces border in this scenario? Possibly, but only if Texas already accepted it. But highly unlikely if it hasn't. In the latter case, Rio Bravo faces the possibility of a war it can't win against the US if it doesn't accept the Rio Bravo border and move its capital further south. And if it goes to war against the US it faces possible annexation. This should enough to want them to rejoin Mexico, as it was in OTL, but if not then it is likely to be forcefully annexed by the US.
In the case of annexation, The US ends up with a lot more Mexicans and quite a complication when it comes to the slavery debate. There is now likely a free state/territory in the "South". So when the slavery issue blows up in its face like OTL, Rio Bravo will be a key issue on he whole affair. Likely it will try to secede and go its own way. Maybe take the Strip back if it is bold enough to attack Texas during the fight. How this war goes is a whole other matter. Maybe even if the Union wins it lets the Riobravenses go their own way and give them the Strip to punish Texas. Who knows?
Now assuming that the Pastry War goes seriously awry to the point of full collapse in Mexico's federal goverment, and other serious repercussions throughout the Republic. In such an extreme case they might change their minds and give it a go.
Joining with Texas is a resounding "hell eff no!" on both sides. For starters the Texians wouldn't want more Mexicans on their borders, secondly there would be an ongoing border dispute over the Nueces Strip. Technically speaking, the Strip is still part of Tamaulipas and the capital of Rio Bravo Rep. is Laredo, which is located North of the river. Texas resisted Santa Anna witha lot of luck and thanks to Santa Anna's own incompetence. But Vidaurri, Llano, Ampudia, and company where resolutely smarter than him. Texas cannot, by itself, win on the offensive. The Riobravenses just have to hold on to Laredo and Matamoros long enough to keep the Nueces Strip. Because Laredo is the capital, I can't see them giving up easy. Ampudia gave the US quite the fight during the siege of Monterrey in OTL's Mexican American War - surely they can withstand anything Texas sends.
The bigger issue occurs when, and if, Texas joins the US. Will the US respect the Rio Neces border in this scenario? Possibly, but only if Texas already accepted it. But highly unlikely if it hasn't. In the latter case, Rio Bravo faces the possibility of a war it can't win against the US if it doesn't accept the Rio Bravo border and move its capital further south. And if it goes to war against the US it faces possible annexation. This should enough to want them to rejoin Mexico, as it was in OTL, but if not then it is likely to be forcefully annexed by the US.
In the case of annexation, The US ends up with a lot more Mexicans and quite a complication when it comes to the slavery debate. There is now likely a free state/territory in the "South". So when the slavery issue blows up in its face like OTL, Rio Bravo will be a key issue on he whole affair. Likely it will try to secede and go its own way. Maybe take the Strip back if it is bold enough to attack Texas during the fight. How this war goes is a whole other matter. Maybe even if the Union wins it lets the Riobravenses go their own way and give them the Strip to punish Texas. Who knows?
Last edited:
Unlikely, the whole Aztlan is a very modern concept. Also at this point Sonora and Sinaloa look more towards Guadalajara economically and politically than towards Monterrey.
Interesting. But a victorious Union would likely let the Rio Bravo folks have the strip if they stayed in the Union.