Loophole answer: USS Panay incident leads to much earlier pacific war, and with the US distracted before Japan ever joining the axis Hiter's wars remain a mostly European matter.
Actual answer: the destruction of the Japanese battleline in a climatic battle earlier enough in the war that sunk cost fallacy hasn't completely grasp the IJN & IJA leadership.
Actual answer: the destruction of the Japanese battleline in a climatic battle earlier enough in the war that sunk cost fallacy hasn't completely grasp the IJN & IJA leadership.
Well, Calbear's The Anglo/American – Nazi War also has Japan surrendering before Germany by way of a Russian surrender and de facto continuation of ww2 into the 1950s.
With a PoD from potentially as early as 1900, then a multitude of scenarios is within plausibility.
If we limit ourselves to a PoD after Japan has entered ww2 proper, then there is still duality of a) making Japan surrender earlier or b) Germany surrender later.
Probably, the easiest change, i.e. involving the least change to the timeline, would be Hitler deputizing a small amount of German forces in the pacific to continue fighting as "the Third Reich". OTL, the Japanese took over some 6 German subs at the OTL German surrender, which would indicate a crew of around 300. This could easily be 2 or 3 times that and led by a "let's fight until the bitter end"-kind of Nazi sent there exactly to do that. Thus you get the legal fiction of the German Reich surrendering later.
With a PoD from potentially as early as 1900, then a multitude of scenarios is within plausibility.
If we limit ourselves to a PoD after Japan has entered ww2 proper, then there is still duality of a) making Japan surrender earlier or b) Germany surrender later.
Probably, the easiest change, i.e. involving the least change to the timeline, would be Hitler deputizing a small amount of German forces in the pacific to continue fighting as "the Third Reich". OTL, the Japanese took over some 6 German subs at the OTL German surrender, which would indicate a crew of around 300. This could easily be 2 or 3 times that and led by a "let's fight until the bitter end"-kind of Nazi sent there exactly to do that. Thus you get the legal fiction of the German Reich surrendering later.
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See the timeline below:
There is Always Hope...again
I have been working on this TL for like 6 months now(13 pages in Word) and I finally finished Part 5 and am currently working on Parts 6&7 which cover the end of WWII So Without Further Adue my TL again... There is Always Hope v.2.0 A Fearless Leader WWII TL© POD: The Battle of The...
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There is Always Hope v.2.0
There is Always Hope v.2.0 A Fearless Leader WWII TL© POD: The Battle of The Java Sea, February 27 1942 The Prelude By January 27th 1942 all hope for the Allied forces in the Dutch East Indies seemed forlorn. The only Island left under Allied control was the tiny island of Java now cut...
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Make the torpedoes work.
The Japanese themselves has modelled WW1 losses and WW2 losses up to mid 1941 from uboats to conclude that their merchant marine would be decimated in 2-3 years.
The Japanese themselves has modelled WW1 losses and WW2 losses up to mid 1941 from uboats to conclude that their merchant marine would be decimated in 2-3 years.
I get the impression that the challenge is more political than military, in the sense of having to create the conditions for the Japanese military (and establishment) to accept defeat and surrender before Germany has surrendered.
I think the "easiest" route may actually be found in Europe, via a better German performance in the Eastern Front (perhaps a much better 1942) enabling a longer war of attrition. The Soviets still win, but Germany buys at least an extra year - perhaps more -. If you can couple that with a disastrous early attempt at opening a second front, you might generate the conditions for the US to instead fully commit to the Pacific first by virtue of Japan looking like a more vulnerable target. Perhaps not having a German declaration of war on the US - the practical consequences of which are probably minor, granted - might help in strictly political terms of justifying such a course of action.
If you then add the suggestions about the Dec 41-May 42 Japanese offensives not going as well, you can also shorten the path significantly (with benefits ranging from lesser distances for the Allies to cover to, say, the KMT being better supplied via keeping the Burma road open, possibly preventing an alt-Ichigo). Worse Japanese performances also create the conditions for an earlier change of cabinet, making it more likely to have a goverment more open to negotiations and, eventually, to accept defeat. While Germany would still be resisting, it would be clear by then that they would be on the way to defeat in the East, utterly unable to assist in any way. Thus, a combination of a naval blockade, the bombing campaigns, the arrival of nuclear weapons, and perhaps an offensive in China as the Manchuria equivalent, might provide the necessary push.
Thus Japan surrenders either on schedule (nuclear solution) or perhaps a few months earlier (if the other combined factors have sufficient effect), and Germany follows afterwards (through the eventual collapse of the Eastern Front, or nuclear fire once enough bombs are gathered).
I think the "easiest" route may actually be found in Europe, via a better German performance in the Eastern Front (perhaps a much better 1942) enabling a longer war of attrition. The Soviets still win, but Germany buys at least an extra year - perhaps more -. If you can couple that with a disastrous early attempt at opening a second front, you might generate the conditions for the US to instead fully commit to the Pacific first by virtue of Japan looking like a more vulnerable target. Perhaps not having a German declaration of war on the US - the practical consequences of which are probably minor, granted - might help in strictly political terms of justifying such a course of action.
If you then add the suggestions about the Dec 41-May 42 Japanese offensives not going as well, you can also shorten the path significantly (with benefits ranging from lesser distances for the Allies to cover to, say, the KMT being better supplied via keeping the Burma road open, possibly preventing an alt-Ichigo). Worse Japanese performances also create the conditions for an earlier change of cabinet, making it more likely to have a goverment more open to negotiations and, eventually, to accept defeat. While Germany would still be resisting, it would be clear by then that they would be on the way to defeat in the East, utterly unable to assist in any way. Thus, a combination of a naval blockade, the bombing campaigns, the arrival of nuclear weapons, and perhaps an offensive in China as the Manchuria equivalent, might provide the necessary push.
Thus Japan surrenders either on schedule (nuclear solution) or perhaps a few months earlier (if the other combined factors have sufficient effect), and Germany follows afterwards (through the eventual collapse of the Eastern Front, or nuclear fire once enough bombs are gathered).
and have the torpedoes work. They will be starved for food, fuel and essential materials much earlier, and the nuclear option won't be necessary. Assuming the Manhattan Project proceeds, the results of Yalta , and the Cold War may be very different.
FairlyUninformedGraduate
Gone Fishin'
Italy stays neutral, and the French fleet rather than be claimed by vichy and sunk by the RN, defects and sails for british ports along with a few battalions extra of free french troops. With no fighting in europe or the middle east to speak of, the french fleet and RN dispatch further forces to the east. Singapore gets a better commander and holds; the combined franco-british-dutch forces repel japanese attacks, but the japenese determine they need to capture us assets or knock them out early, so a version of pearl harbour still happens. Now, you have a stronger allied presence in the pacific, and little to no opportunities to fight germany; the germans divert more troops, planes and equipment to the eastern front. Leningrad falls, and the soviet counter attack is much slower against heavier resistance; rommel and other commanders who otl were not availble are able to slow the soviet advance, and actually put in place things like armoured defence lines behind them so they can retreat behind them. meanwhile, the japanese navy is destroyed by the much larger allied contingent, bombing raids his the japanese mainland with incendiary bombing runs and the japanese merchant marine is desroyed or captured; their other assaults fail or are undone leading to a change in government, who negotiate a surrender rather than face starvation. Theres far few allied POWs so far less horrors to be uncovered, so japan doesnt face the same fury.
The battle hardened allies then have a large military available which has now got experience in opposed landings, and in time, an alt-overlord is launched. germany has stalled the soviets at the cost of almost all their military might, so frnce is liberated quickly, and german defences are undermanned - hitelr is assassinated, and a new goverment put in place which decides, int he face of calls for a surrender to all the allies, to fight on int he east but essentially allow the allies to occupy their territory to stop the soviets doing it. WAllied troops reach berlin, and the germans surrender, with none of germany occupied by the soviets (or only minimal).
The battle hardened allies then have a large military available which has now got experience in opposed landings, and in time, an alt-overlord is launched. germany has stalled the soviets at the cost of almost all their military might, so frnce is liberated quickly, and german defences are undermanned - hitelr is assassinated, and a new goverment put in place which decides, int he face of calls for a surrender to all the allies, to fight on int he east but essentially allow the allies to occupy their territory to stop the soviets doing it. WAllied troops reach berlin, and the germans surrender, with none of germany occupied by the soviets (or only minimal).
Do you mean Japan surrendering earlier or Germany surrendering later more?
A mildly tall if tree
1 of the 2 torpedoes that hit HMS Courageous goes clang instead of bang and while damaged the carrier and importantly the crew survives and is back in action during mid 1940
Renown slaps the twins about a bit more in April 1940 and following the losses sustained by the rest of the fleet both ships are not risked and so HMS Glorious does not get to 'forget she is a man O war' in June 1940
This results in a reasonably more effective operation MB8 (of which operation Judgement - the attack on the Italian fleet at Taranto - was a main component) - with HMS Courageous joining the op and HMS Ark Royal and her air group joining the attack on Taranto with HMS Illustrious tripling the number of torpedo carrying Swordfish and resulting in all 5 Battleships and 3 heavy cruisers being sunk in the harbour along with damage to other ships
This gives the RN a larger material advantage over the Italian surface fleet compared to OTL
Operation compass is even more successful and no British/Australian/New Zealand forces sent to Greece due to a massive disagreement between various national leaders
Instead the Imperial forces in North Africa are largely retained with the NZ Division instead sent to garrison Crete (with its full TO&E intact) allowing Greek forces to fight on the main land.
At about the same time Cunningham is able to push through his plans for Malta to be stood up with increased defences, supplies and air power
As a result Rommel's build up in North Africa is slower as more shipping is interdicted over OTL
So he is not able to launch Operation Sonnenblume before April 1941 and against a far stronger more prepared 8th Army and he does not enjoy the same successes as OTL
In May 1941 the Germans launch the invasion of Crete, their intel not appreciating that the entire 2nd New Zealand Division is on the island with tank support and their full Artillery and M/T intact (OTL most was lost in Greece), is decimated on the first day (their LZs malleted by 25 pounder artillery and sufficient motor transport allowing reserves to be rapidly moved to the point of threat) and follow on forces are simply reinforcing defeat before the German commanders call of the attack on the evening of day 2 with the balance of the Fallshirmjeager division lost and heavy losses to the German Transport fleet.
All this results in far milder losses to the RN and the army not losing 1.5 divisions in manpower and 5 plus divisions worth of heavy equipment, Artillery and transport!
This results in a sooner release of Australian forces from the 8th Army as well as an additional Indian Army Division and the movement of 7th Armoured Brigade with all 3 battalions reequipped with M3 Stuarts stood up in Malaya under command 2nd Australian Imperial Force
In addition a more powerful RN force is sent to Singapore and all P40s (about 476 were sent to the middle east by end of Dec 41) are sent to the region and become the mainstay of the far eastern air forces for the next 2 years
With a far stronger Imperial force in Malaya the Japanese invasion goes badly and is forced to retreat in April 42 and having swallowed up additional units there is no invasion of DEI or Burma.
This keeps Rangoon open and increased equipment sent to the Chinese
Long story short this results in earlier defeats of the Japanese......and my lunch break is over
This allows the Commonwealth forces to grow stronger during the rain season and by Nov that year despite defeat in the Philippines the allies are virtually unassailable with a number of naval victories by the USN led allied navies effectively gaining the initiative by the end of 1942
1 of the 2 torpedoes that hit HMS Courageous goes clang instead of bang and while damaged the carrier and importantly the crew survives and is back in action during mid 1940
Renown slaps the twins about a bit more in April 1940 and following the losses sustained by the rest of the fleet both ships are not risked and so HMS Glorious does not get to 'forget she is a man O war' in June 1940
This results in a reasonably more effective operation MB8 (of which operation Judgement - the attack on the Italian fleet at Taranto - was a main component) - with HMS Courageous joining the op and HMS Ark Royal and her air group joining the attack on Taranto with HMS Illustrious tripling the number of torpedo carrying Swordfish and resulting in all 5 Battleships and 3 heavy cruisers being sunk in the harbour along with damage to other ships
This gives the RN a larger material advantage over the Italian surface fleet compared to OTL
Operation compass is even more successful and no British/Australian/New Zealand forces sent to Greece due to a massive disagreement between various national leaders
Instead the Imperial forces in North Africa are largely retained with the NZ Division instead sent to garrison Crete (with its full TO&E intact) allowing Greek forces to fight on the main land.
At about the same time Cunningham is able to push through his plans for Malta to be stood up with increased defences, supplies and air power
As a result Rommel's build up in North Africa is slower as more shipping is interdicted over OTL
So he is not able to launch Operation Sonnenblume before April 1941 and against a far stronger more prepared 8th Army and he does not enjoy the same successes as OTL
In May 1941 the Germans launch the invasion of Crete, their intel not appreciating that the entire 2nd New Zealand Division is on the island with tank support and their full Artillery and M/T intact (OTL most was lost in Greece), is decimated on the first day (their LZs malleted by 25 pounder artillery and sufficient motor transport allowing reserves to be rapidly moved to the point of threat) and follow on forces are simply reinforcing defeat before the German commanders call of the attack on the evening of day 2 with the balance of the Fallshirmjeager division lost and heavy losses to the German Transport fleet.
All this results in far milder losses to the RN and the army not losing 1.5 divisions in manpower and 5 plus divisions worth of heavy equipment, Artillery and transport!
This results in a sooner release of Australian forces from the 8th Army as well as an additional Indian Army Division and the movement of 7th Armoured Brigade with all 3 battalions reequipped with M3 Stuarts stood up in Malaya under command 2nd Australian Imperial Force
In addition a more powerful RN force is sent to Singapore and all P40s (about 476 were sent to the middle east by end of Dec 41) are sent to the region and become the mainstay of the far eastern air forces for the next 2 years
With a far stronger Imperial force in Malaya the Japanese invasion goes badly and is forced to retreat in April 42 and having swallowed up additional units there is no invasion of DEI or Burma.
This keeps Rangoon open and increased equipment sent to the Chinese
Long story short this results in earlier defeats of the Japanese......and my lunch break is over
This allows the Commonwealth forces to grow stronger during the rain season and by Nov that year despite defeat in the Philippines the allies are virtually unassailable with a number of naval victories by the USN led allied navies effectively gaining the initiative by the end of 1942
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The failure of the Washington Naval Treaty could have done the job. Without that treaty, the US Congress wouldn't have bought into the fallacy of arms limitation treaties and abandoned naval spending. With proper naval spending and a proper fully funded testing of torpedoes, both air launched and submarine, Japan could have found itself starving by mid 1943.
A competent ROC could have done it too. If Chiang Kai-shek wasn't such a crook, and the Chinese Army hadn't been full of chiselers stealing the ration, Japan could have easily found itself on the ropes against a numerically superior military flying the latest US aircraft. If the Japanese had been driven out of Manchuria, and all the Maru's were being sunk they might well have sued for peace as an alternative to civil war.
A competent ROC could have done it too. If Chiang Kai-shek wasn't such a crook, and the Chinese Army hadn't been full of chiselers stealing the ration, Japan could have easily found itself on the ropes against a numerically superior military flying the latest US aircraft. If the Japanese had been driven out of Manchuria, and all the Maru's were being sunk they might well have sued for peace as an alternative to civil war.
You're getting cause and effect mixed up. The US didn't give up paying for their navy because of the Washington Treaty, they pushed for the Washington Treaty because they'd given up paying for their navy.
My own solution to the OP: the Alpine Redoubt exists. It's not going to last long, but it's down south and out of the way and the allies have more important thing to worry about. By the time they turn their attention to it it's well fortified, they decide it's not worth wasting people on and therefore apply a combination of massive bombardment and isolation. This leads to its collapse, but Japan gets nuked and surrenders in the interim.
Japanese leadership (the Emperor?) realized late 1943 that Italy is out, Germany is losing badly, the US has resolve and Japan will lose in the face of massive material shortfall. Negotiates an "unconditional" surrender that is in fact rather conditional.
or
US fixes torpedoes sooner, and also gets aggressive about mining Japanese harbors sooner. Japanese shortages of supplies and food intensify late '44, early '45. Japanese intelligence reports that the Soviets will attack once Hitler is finished (soon). Firebombing of Japan is intense. Japan surrenders early '45, just a bit before Germany.
or
Churchill persuades FDR to delay Overlord even longer. Some dabbling in the Balkans/Greece. More intense attempts on Italy or maybe south of France. No cross-channel invasion before fall '44 (or even spring '45). Germany doesn't fall until 3-6 months later than OTL, and Japan goes down in the meantime.
or
(Some on this board know this stuff better than me - correct my errors please) - Macarthur is captured by the Japanese in '42. Instead of (I think?) 2 prong OTL approach, US focuses on a single prong ~mid-Pacific crossing, skips Philippines. Gets to Okinawa/Iwo Jima sooner, gets B-29s and other bombers into action sooner, knocks Japan out ~6 months earlier.
or
US fixes torpedoes sooner, and also gets aggressive about mining Japanese harbors sooner. Japanese shortages of supplies and food intensify late '44, early '45. Japanese intelligence reports that the Soviets will attack once Hitler is finished (soon). Firebombing of Japan is intense. Japan surrenders early '45, just a bit before Germany.
or
Churchill persuades FDR to delay Overlord even longer. Some dabbling in the Balkans/Greece. More intense attempts on Italy or maybe south of France. No cross-channel invasion before fall '44 (or even spring '45). Germany doesn't fall until 3-6 months later than OTL, and Japan goes down in the meantime.
or
(Some on this board know this stuff better than me - correct my errors please) - Macarthur is captured by the Japanese in '42. Instead of (I think?) 2 prong OTL approach, US focuses on a single prong ~mid-Pacific crossing, skips Philippines. Gets to Okinawa/Iwo Jima sooner, gets B-29s and other bombers into action sooner, knocks Japan out ~6 months earlier.
Better China performance, Philippines holding out for alot longer.
Technically that would require a 20-30s pod. In the Philippines give the command to the Filipinos. Prepare the army better, send like surplus likely old equipment and idk war materiel. and fund it's army earlier. Training also. More defenses and also industry. More airforce. Also have Big Mac react faster to the events. US sends their "promised" reinforcements, supplies and everything to Big Mac which didn't arrive.
Meanwhile in China, Chiang gets his Chinese army training, has like a good industrial base, has like equipment and others. Airforce sizeable. Also kick the Japanese forces out of Shanghai.
Technically if the two is like pushing the Japanese out. The US might opt for Asia/Pacific first or focus onnthere more and send reinforcements. The US will have already a staging ground, mainly in PI, to basically aid china more and etc
Technically that would require a 20-30s pod. In the Philippines give the command to the Filipinos. Prepare the army better, send like surplus likely old equipment and idk war materiel. and fund it's army earlier. Training also. More defenses and also industry. More airforce. Also have Big Mac react faster to the events. US sends their "promised" reinforcements, supplies and everything to Big Mac which didn't arrive.
Meanwhile in China, Chiang gets his Chinese army training, has like a good industrial base, has like equipment and others. Airforce sizeable. Also kick the Japanese forces out of Shanghai.
Technically if the two is like pushing the Japanese out. The US might opt for Asia/Pacific first or focus onnthere more and send reinforcements. The US will have already a staging ground, mainly in PI, to basically aid china more and etc
Have the IJN try to block Lend-Lease supplies from reaching the Soviets via Vladivostok.