A Holy Roman Empire-like Roman Empire?

Bear with me here for a moment, 'cos I'm going to explain the leadup to this. Scroll down a few paragraphs and start reading after the bolded bit if you don't like words or are familiar with the late Imperial era.



By the 460s, the Western Roman Empire was a clusterfuck of a mess, but everybody still believed it still had life in it. Euric, the famed Visigothic king, only forced the Romans to recognize an independent Visigothic kingdom in 475-- before then he was (formally) a legate of the Western Roman Empire ruling territories in Gallia and Hispania in the name of Rome. The Franks, likewise, were still technically foederati at this time, as were the Burgundians. Those 'barbarians' all still were (in theory) loyal to Rome and would fight for them, although of course they tried to further their own interests at the same time.

Part of this reason this didn't work out for the Romans is because of Ricimer, a powerhungry douchebag who kept installing and deposing puppet emperors up to 472, when he died of the plague. By then everything had become an even bigger clusterfuck and the Western Roman Empire ceased to exist four years later, in large part due to how much of a cocksucker Ricimer was.

One of Ricimer's "puppet emperors" who almost developed a spine was Anthemius. Ricimer kind of liked the Vandals, but Anthemius did not, and despite Ricimer being a total dickwad Anthemius organized a massive campaign against the Vandals, to be carried out in 467. Bad weather fouled everything up, and instead they had to try next year in 468 (together with the Eastern Roman Empire)-- but by then the Vandals were ready and totally wrecked the Romans' shit. Anthemius went on to cock up an attack on the Visigoths and was beheaded by Ricimer's henchmen in 472.

What if Anthemius had succeeded in his 467 or 468 campaign against the Vandals, recapturing Carthage and possibly scattering the Vandals into obscurity?

With the revenue of Africa Proconsularis flowing back to Rome again, the Emperor's political position strengthened and things generally rosy for once, the WRE could probably make it to the end of the fifth century, and Ricimer was already in his 60s and might very well die around 472 anyways.

The thing is, by this point there's barbarians heavily entrenched within Roman territory. Most of them recognize Roman suzerainty and their kings hold Roman titles to justify their rule, so theoretically their lands are all still Roman territory, but by 467 their rulers were much less enchanted with Roman splendor and much more assertive. I doubt the Romans can totally destroy them.

Over time, would the autonomy of the "barbarian" territories within the Roman Empire be formally recognized? Would the Visigothic, Burgundian and Frankish lands eventually end up like post-Golden Bull states, acting autonomously within what's theoretically a gigantic-ass empire? What could come of a Western Roman Empire that survives the fifth century while decentralizing?
 
This is an interesting idea. I think a lot would depend on how much authority the emperor wielded - meaning in practice, not name.

If the Emperor can enforce that the Franks (etc.) are part of the Empire, its probably at most a reconquest. Not to say that Roman authority can truly be asserted in this period, but maybe if things move forward, there's a possibility of retaining a limited amount of what was the WRE as truly imperial, the rest as vassal kingdoms of the sort Armenia is in the east.

On the other hand, if not, how long until what happened OTL in 476 happens anyway?
 
476 was partially a financial matter though, wasn't it? If Odoacer's foederati could've been paid off (hence the emphasis here on the recapture of Carthage), then the matter of a Germanic uprising in Italy can be averted. Right? Then the matter becomes one of the barbarians outside of Italy but inside the WRE.
 
Yes, this is interesting and plausible too, I think. Are you considering doing a TL on the matter, Ofaloaf?

I think it'd take a mixture of good and bad luck on the part of Anthemius and his descendants for the situation to stabilise as an Emperor who rules Germanic kings- basically, the Western Emperor in this period would have to be strong enough to be worth dealing with, but weak enough to be able to ignore when it was in the interests of the Germanic kings.

Also, Anthemius wasn't really so much a puppet of Ricimer as he was a puppet of Leo I, the Emperor in Constantinople. Anthemius had a successful career as an Eastern general behind him before he took on the poisoned chalice of the Western throne.
 
476 was partially a financial matter though, wasn't it? If Odoacer's foederati could've been paid off (hence the emphasis here on the recapture of Carthage), then the matter of a Germanic uprising in Italy can be averted. Right? Then the matter becomes one of the barbarians outside of Italy but inside the WRE.

That sounds fairly feasible, yeah. I'm just thinking that if the barbarians are the ones with real power, sooner or latter one is probably going to decide that Imperial suzerainty is overrated and stop paying attention to whoever is nominally Emperor of the West.

With the money from Africa, preventing that is probably possible, but it does require the state (meaning the part not in barbarian hands) to be able to prevail in that, as well as simply to pay for individual foederati as that comes up.
 
Yes, this is interesting and plausible too, I think. Are you considering doing a TL on the matter, Ofaloaf?
The whole Anthemius-wins-in-467 thing is actually the basis of an EU3 mod I've been sporadically working on, although the mod is a lot less serious as a work of AH-- surely Visigoths, Franks and Romans wouldn't be preserved in that awkward state until 1356. I'm honestly not sure where it would go, if done as serious AH.

I think it'd take a mixture of good and bad luck on the part of Anthemius and his descendants for the situation to stabilise as an Emperor who rules Germanic kings- basically, the Western Emperor in this period would have to be strong enough to be worth dealing with, but weak enough to be able to ignore when it was in the interests of the Germanic kings.
That doesn't sound quite so hard-- it isn't asking for the improbably fortunate or unlucky, but rather a muddling-along mixture of both.

I think the big thing here is that while the Roman Emperor would have strong control over Italy and whatever troops are stationed there, he'd have much less control over Gallia and Hispania. The Italian forces are probably enough of a threat to goad the barbarian legates into action sometimes, but it's not enough for a direct confrontation with everybody at once. Germanic legates, on their part, will probably try to appease Rome just enough to prevent the buildup of the Italian army, while the Romans will probably be watchful enough not to shrink the army too much.

Also, Anthemius wasn't really so much a puppet of Ricimer as he was a puppet of Leo I, the Emperor in Constantinople. Anthemius had a successful career as an Eastern general behind him before he took on the poisoned chalice of the Western throne.
Point taken. Still, it was Ricimer who caused the trouble for Anthemius moreso than it was Leo, right?
That sounds fairly feasible, yeah. I'm just thinking that if the barbarians are the ones with real power, sooner or latter one is probably going to decide that Imperial suzerainty is overrated and stop paying attention to whoever is nominally Emperor of the West.

With the money from Africa, preventing that is probably possible, but it does require the state (meaning the part not in barbarian hands) to be able to prevail in that, as well as simply to pay for individual foederati as that comes up.
I suppose at this point it means Rome has to go through a period of high reliance on the army to do anything, but the best way I can see it going is by having the Romans maintain an Italian army large enough to deter Germanic legates from either invading Italy or declaring their total independence from the Empire. Italy + Africa ought to be enough to afford a military of that size, surely.
 
The whole Anthemius-wins-in-467 thing is actually the basis of an EU3 mod I've been sporadically working on, although the mod is a lot less serious as a work of AH-- surely Visigoths, Franks and Romans wouldn't be preserved in that awkward state until 1356. I'm honestly not sure where it would go, if done as serious AH.

Just to put in my two cents if I may, it seems good enough as is to run with for EU3 mod level alt-history, and its definitely an interesting idea if you want to be more serious.

I suppose at this point it means Rome has to go through a period of high reliance on the army to do anything, but the best way I can see it going is by having the Romans maintain an Italian army large enough to deter Germanic legates from either invading Italy or declaring their total independence from the Empire. Italy + Africa ought to be enough to afford a military of that size, surely.
That I am not sure on. Partially just because Italy, relative to the rest of the empire, has dwindled so much already.

I wouldn't say its impossible, but I'm very uncertain about it.

On the other hand, you're not asking for them to be able to impose Roman authority at sword point, just to maintain a sufficient force for it to be taken seriously.
 
On the other hand, you're not asking for them to be able to impose Roman authority at sword point, just to maintain a sufficient force for it to be taken seriously.
That's pretty much it right there. The WRE couldn't raise a force large enough to properly subjugate the Germanic kingdoms, but they could probably raise a force large enough for a war between a Germanic kingdom and Rome to be costly for both sides, which ought to be a workable deterrent.
 
Hmmm... I'm not sure if it would be enough or would it be to little to late, remember we are getting close to when the ERE was struggling to survive before the arrival of Justinian I. Personally I would imagine that the WRE would still collapse, its economy was a basketcase, and the barbarians were getting more and more uppity as the chance of the WRE renewing its strength or getting proper reinforcements from the ERE decreased. However this scattering of the Vandals could lead to the ERE having more of a foothold in Carthage causing North Africa to be a bit more stable thus totally butterflying away any 6th century that is recognisable today.
 
what would happen with Syagrius and his domain if this were to happen?

I think it would be interesting if parts of Gaul remain under imperial control in the long run, and maybe even with a roman reconquest of the Burgundian realm so there would be a string of land under direct imperial control all the way up to the northern shores of Gaul.

It would also be a bit like how the OTL Holy Roman Empire looked like on the map, stretching through Germany and Italy, only this time it would go through Gaul instead of Germany
 
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