Chapman
Donor
On April 19, 1995, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols committed the deadliest act of domestic terrorism in American history. Fueled by anti-government hatred, and specifically resentment over the Ruby Ridge incident and the Waco siege, a Ryder truck packed full of explosives was detonated at 9:02 AM in the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. This building housed a number of federal agencies, including the ATF, the FBI, and the DEA. Not only were government employees among the casualties, but so too were many civilians visiting the various offices including the Social Security office, and, of course, a daycare. 168 people were killed as roughly 1/3 of the building was destroyed. Many children were among those casualties, and at least 680 other people were also seriously injured in the attack. Initially the assumption was made that this was an act of radical Islamic terrorism, but it wasn't very long before the truth came to light. McVeigh was caught on unrelated charges within 90 minutes, and less than 70 miles from the scene, and was quickly linked, along with Nichols, to the crime.
However, McVeigh and Nichols were not the first people to imagine such a heinous crime. McVeigh specifically was associated with figures such as Richard Snell and James Ellison, two key individuals in the far-right, white supremacist movement. Ellison was the founder of a group known as The Covenant, The Sword, and the Arm of the Lord (CSA for short) which originally focused on espousing its "Christian Identity" philosophy but soon developed into an armed militia. The group acquired quite the cache of weaponry including firearms and explosives, as well as a large supply of cyanide which was allegedly intended to poison water supplies. The CSA also dedicated its membership, both men and women, to survivalist training. They drilled as soldiers in the belief that the US government would collapse, and that they would be left behind to establish a society based on their religious principles. Richard Snell, a close friend of Ellison, had previously been involved in legal issues with the IRS and desired to enact revenge against the federal government. Together he and Ellison considered the Alfred P. Murrah building as a target 12 years before McVeigh. However, two events prevented this from coming to fruition. First, Snell had been involved in the 1983 murders of Arkansas pawn shop owner William Stumpp (whom he believed to be Jewish) as well as Arkansas State Trooper Louis P. Bryant. For these murders he was sentenced to death - perhaps not so coincidentally, his execution took place on the same day as OTL's Oklahoma City Bombing, April 19, 1995. Secondly, in the process of manufacturing rockets to be shot at the building, their weapons manufacturer had explosives detonate in his hands. The group therefore took this as a divine warning against this particular plot. They did however continue to plan alternative acts of violence.
By 1985, the group had attracted the attention of the federal government enough for the ATF to mount a raid on Ellison's compound in Arkansas. Despite fears of a massive shootout between federal agents and members of the militia, the situation was ultimately resolved peacefully, in no small part thanks, ironically, to a member of the CSA - Kerry Noble. Noble had begun to question the motives of his group and plead with Ellison to surrender, insisting that none of them would survive a shootout with the far better armed federal agents. As a result of the raid on the CSA's compound, the ATF seized their weapons cache - including, as I said, rifles, explosives, and literal barrels full of cyanide allegedly to be used to poison water supplies in places such as New York City and Washington, DC. Ellison was prosecuted and sentenced to 20 years in prison - however, he was released in 1987 after he agreed to testify against members of the Aryan Nations.
One year after Ellison's release, in 1988, the government sought to put an end to these groups by pursuing charges of sedition against a number of white supremacist leaders including Snell, Richard Butler, Louis Beam, and eleven others. Given the fairly high bar set for prosecutors (not only did they have to prove intent to overthrow the government, but that the defendants had the capacity to do so), the jury found the defendants not guilty in a major blow to the government's efforts against them.
With all of this in mind, here's the idea - assume that sometime in 1983, or early 1984, the CSA follows through on its Oklahoma City plot. Perhaps the explosives don't detonate in the hands of their manufacturer and their agents don't find another reason to call the attack off. The intent, as I understand it, was for multiple individuals to launch rockets at the building. So let's assume they manage to have 3 men with rocket launchers fire simultaneously.
First and foremost, what kind of rockets would they be likely to use? Does anyone have any insight on the kinds of weaponry they might have gotten their hands on to pull off this attack? This will obviously have an impact on the overall results, in terms of damage to the building as well as injuries and fatalities. Secondly, with such a major attack being perpetrated by far-right anti-government radicals, how will the nation react? Will the federal government be able to successfully pursue sedition charges in these circumstances? Will this impact the nature of then-first term President Ronald Reagan, who was known for his own antagonism towards the federal government? Of course Reagan was nowhere near the ideology of these groups, but would the public shock of such an attack impact him enough to throw the 1984 election to the Democrats? I suppose that heavily depends on how his administration responds to the attack - does anyone want to speculate on how he would proceed? How does this impact the growth of the conservative movement at large? Is it smothered in its cradle as comparisons are made between the anti-government stances of popular conservatives and these violent groups? How are the following decades changed by this alternate moment in American history?
However, McVeigh and Nichols were not the first people to imagine such a heinous crime. McVeigh specifically was associated with figures such as Richard Snell and James Ellison, two key individuals in the far-right, white supremacist movement. Ellison was the founder of a group known as The Covenant, The Sword, and the Arm of the Lord (CSA for short) which originally focused on espousing its "Christian Identity" philosophy but soon developed into an armed militia. The group acquired quite the cache of weaponry including firearms and explosives, as well as a large supply of cyanide which was allegedly intended to poison water supplies. The CSA also dedicated its membership, both men and women, to survivalist training. They drilled as soldiers in the belief that the US government would collapse, and that they would be left behind to establish a society based on their religious principles. Richard Snell, a close friend of Ellison, had previously been involved in legal issues with the IRS and desired to enact revenge against the federal government. Together he and Ellison considered the Alfred P. Murrah building as a target 12 years before McVeigh. However, two events prevented this from coming to fruition. First, Snell had been involved in the 1983 murders of Arkansas pawn shop owner William Stumpp (whom he believed to be Jewish) as well as Arkansas State Trooper Louis P. Bryant. For these murders he was sentenced to death - perhaps not so coincidentally, his execution took place on the same day as OTL's Oklahoma City Bombing, April 19, 1995. Secondly, in the process of manufacturing rockets to be shot at the building, their weapons manufacturer had explosives detonate in his hands. The group therefore took this as a divine warning against this particular plot. They did however continue to plan alternative acts of violence.
By 1985, the group had attracted the attention of the federal government enough for the ATF to mount a raid on Ellison's compound in Arkansas. Despite fears of a massive shootout between federal agents and members of the militia, the situation was ultimately resolved peacefully, in no small part thanks, ironically, to a member of the CSA - Kerry Noble. Noble had begun to question the motives of his group and plead with Ellison to surrender, insisting that none of them would survive a shootout with the far better armed federal agents. As a result of the raid on the CSA's compound, the ATF seized their weapons cache - including, as I said, rifles, explosives, and literal barrels full of cyanide allegedly to be used to poison water supplies in places such as New York City and Washington, DC. Ellison was prosecuted and sentenced to 20 years in prison - however, he was released in 1987 after he agreed to testify against members of the Aryan Nations.
One year after Ellison's release, in 1988, the government sought to put an end to these groups by pursuing charges of sedition against a number of white supremacist leaders including Snell, Richard Butler, Louis Beam, and eleven others. Given the fairly high bar set for prosecutors (not only did they have to prove intent to overthrow the government, but that the defendants had the capacity to do so), the jury found the defendants not guilty in a major blow to the government's efforts against them.
With all of this in mind, here's the idea - assume that sometime in 1983, or early 1984, the CSA follows through on its Oklahoma City plot. Perhaps the explosives don't detonate in the hands of their manufacturer and their agents don't find another reason to call the attack off. The intent, as I understand it, was for multiple individuals to launch rockets at the building. So let's assume they manage to have 3 men with rocket launchers fire simultaneously.
First and foremost, what kind of rockets would they be likely to use? Does anyone have any insight on the kinds of weaponry they might have gotten their hands on to pull off this attack? This will obviously have an impact on the overall results, in terms of damage to the building as well as injuries and fatalities. Secondly, with such a major attack being perpetrated by far-right anti-government radicals, how will the nation react? Will the federal government be able to successfully pursue sedition charges in these circumstances? Will this impact the nature of then-first term President Ronald Reagan, who was known for his own antagonism towards the federal government? Of course Reagan was nowhere near the ideology of these groups, but would the public shock of such an attack impact him enough to throw the 1984 election to the Democrats? I suppose that heavily depends on how his administration responds to the attack - does anyone want to speculate on how he would proceed? How does this impact the growth of the conservative movement at large? Is it smothered in its cradle as comparisons are made between the anti-government stances of popular conservatives and these violent groups? How are the following decades changed by this alternate moment in American history?
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