Why does the US refuse to join the war ITTL?
Doesn't change that, all political parties categorically refused to peace out with the Germans. By late 1917 the PG was in a hopeless situation, yet a separate peace deal was not even considered.
And the military situation has changed but not completely, you just have the Austrians who are a little bit further in the frontlines and perhaps Romania joining, not the CPs occupying Moscow and Petrograd (and even at that point I doubt the PG would surrender)
The key factor in the February R. succeeding was the soldiers starving and therefore joining the revolt, military defeats were not very relevant in that; and an overthrow of the Tsar in Summer 1916 is ASB, Nicholas did every mistake he could've IOTL.
Much lower? Either way, not a deciding factor.
Foreign position was good?
Every day, the Bolsheviks were stronger and their armies were beaten further inside Russia. It may be clear with hindsight that the CPs were doomed in the long run but the Russian government of the time could not expect anything else than suffering and defeats in the foreseeable future, and a separate peace deal wasn't even considered an option.
Anyone proposing a separate peace with the CPs will be considered a German puppet and his/her best future would be thrown out of the government, at worst s/he'll meet the firing squad.
In 1917 it was far from clear that the war would be won by the Allies, up until that point the CPs were having the upper hand esp. against Russia. With hindsight it's obvious that by late 1918/early 1919 the CPs are doomed but even if they were to know that (and they didn't) that's more than Russia can endure.
Faustschlag was only possible after the Bolsheviks demobilized the army, in 1916 the Germans were distracted on the Western front (meaning large scale offensives in the East were impossible) and the Russian army was still in an okay position. Furthermore, you can look at the performance of the PG in 1917, while bad it was nowhere near enough to make Russia collapse.
A Russian collapse in 1916 just won't happen, even if literally everything goes wrong for them they won't be thrown out of the war.
Russia didn't stay in the war expecting that it would be won by the West (if anything after the Nivelle Offensive it seems like they're in a very bad shape, far from winning), they did it because they considered that Russian commitments to its Allies were too important.
I just want to remember you that even after Brest-Litovsk was signed the Left SRs (who were the ones closest to the Bolsheviks ideologically) assassinated the German ambassador hoping to relaunch hostilities.
It may or may not join later but from late 1916 that isn't apparent and Wilson is running on "he kept us out of the war"
But it has completely changed. No US, no Italy, much stronger Austria, potentially CP Romania. And PG was not in a hopeless situation, hold out for 12 months and they win, that's a very hopeful situation, it's a clear path to victory. Refusing to peace out when you can see doing xyz will win is one thing, refusing to do so when you have no idea how to win or if you can is another
Except that Nicholas had Brusilov for success OTL, if that is a disaster instead, coming right on the heels of Lake Naroch and a worse Great Retreat, his situation is now shit
Potentially a deciding Factor. Russia can only replace losses so fast and the inverse square law is a thing. A slight shift in force balance can have more than slight results. And continue the Great Retreat at even half levels for another month, doable with a bunch of extra A-H divisions, and Russia is down a full field army
Yes the foreign situation was good. Russia had France, the UK, Italy, the US, Japan, and a whole host of minors as allies and only 4 enemies, Turkey (who they beat like a drum), A-H(thrashed in Galicia and Brusilov), Bulgaria (not fighting them directly) and Germany. You could generally predict which side would win from that
Define foreseeable future. Because it was definitely foreseeable by summer 1917 that Germany+Austria would run out of warm bodies before the US/UK/France/Italy, so Russia had a clear path to victory, hold on until that event, even if there was the possibility of an upset
The OTL Russians were in a good position in 1916, this whole conversation is predicated on a worse 1915 for them and a failed Brusilov, if everything goes wrong for Russia in this case they run out of troops. Winning Brusilov cost them 500,000 troops in a month, losing it could cost them a million in the same time period. The Great Retreat cost them 500,000 a month, keep up that level of losses for 5 months after a failed Brusilov and that's the entire Russian Army, that is a possibility if a remote one
And if their allies are going to lose anyways why bother taking losses to contribute
I'm gonna stop after this, I think I'm clogging up the thread, if you want the last word you have my blessing to take it
