No Nazism (and maybe no WWII) - What is the ultimate fate of the Second Polish Republic?
- Thread starter athgtq16129
- Start date
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Good question - would it?
The Czechs and Little Entente actually never ended up doing anything to Poland nor ever hurt Poland nor contributed to Poland's 1939 downfall. Poland just picked at the bones of an already mortally wounded Czechoslovakia in March 1939. Their rivalry and lack of agreement, a mutual responsibility dating back to 1919, was consequential only inasmuch as it prevented a maybe, possibly, but not that likely successful united front against revanchist Germany. Other than that, their mutual acrimony and backstabbing had precisely zero geopolitical consequence.
Oh, something like in fact favorable to Germany in policy, while rhetorically saying anti-German things for domestic popular consumption?
What about Galicia, especially the western, Polish speaking part, and Cracow?
Backlash for allowing a Soviet advance into Poland, backlash from whom, western powers? A coalition of whom, western powers? Set aside their aims on Austria and Czechoslovakia, or get begged, "please go protect them"?
Agreed.
Poland, even if isolated, would probably fight rather than give up the corridor.
And if Czechoslovakia has just watched Germany just pick apart all Poland militarily, extending German control for over 500 additional kilometers along its northern border, Prague probably feels any defenses it has are so outflanked and overextended as to be hopeless and futile, no matter what the western Allies may promise, so they would not even resist handing over a German demand for the Sudetenland by force of arms by that point, most likely.
If Germany has not remilitarized, well France may feel less threatened by and angry at Germany, but France may ironically show more courage in attacking Germany's western border in retaliations for German aggression to the east against Poland or Czechoslovakia or Austria.
Like how I said in the OP, I had in mind that their military building is longer, slower, and more pragmatic.
Yes, because Poles (like IOTL) would relocate most of their armed forces to Western Poland (just to not give Germans excuse, that Poles "left contested areas undefended") and easier way to defeat Polish army would be thrust towards the center (which was relatively easy due to shape of the border), add Soviet attack from the east and you have OTL result-destruction of Polish state.
I'd disagree on it having zero consequences. Polish attitudes towards territorial disputes in Czechoslovakia and Lithuania made them stronger, but also made it harder for those nations to trust and ally them. (Not they Czechoslovakia or Lithuania were innocent either--the Czechs were far too pro-Soviet for the Poles and Lithuania wouldn't drop the Vilnius issue even two decades after WW1.)
Exactly
They would be folded in, with East Galicia being joined to Ukraine.
It depends greatly on whether Germany just turns a blind eye to it or if they explicitly agree and sign a treaty to it. Granted, a Germany with a less stupid leader might not be as inclined to hurt their image by cooperating with the Soviets, but you never know...
Oh definitely, but I could see the Entente turning a blind eye to a limited war as long as it ends once Germany has occupied the 1914 borders.
I also disagree on this, I have had to do a lot of research into the foreign policy of France in this era for my story and the defensive Maginot policy began long before Hitler. France based their plans so heavily on their fortifications that breaking from.it was borderline anathema. Polish and French relations breaking off began pre-Hitler, when Britain guaranteed their defense of Germany in the event of French troops crossing into the Rhineland unprovoked and Germany dropped their claims in Alsace for a future free hand in the East, and it became clear to Poland that France would gladly sit behind their fortresses while Germany reshaped the East.
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Without World War II, I see Poland surviving but not exactly in a good shape. As KaiserKatze has pointed out, Germany and Poland can most likely come to an agreement (be that by diplomacy or by bayonet is the real question here) that will allow Poland to continue existence.
However, I do think the Soviets would try to get something out of it, perhaps seizing parts of Galicia to give to the Ukrainian SSR, and may actually try to be friendly with Lithuania by offering them Wilno/Vilnius, as with a non-Nazi right-wing Germany with it's eyes on Memel, it would be in Stalin's best interest to play buddy-buddy with Lithuania until the opportunity for doing what he basically did IOTL (granted, this time, he may have more, yet not major, support in the Baltics due to the German threat) arises.
However, I do think the Soviets would try to get something out of it, perhaps seizing parts of Galicia to give to the Ukrainian SSR, and may actually try to be friendly with Lithuania by offering them Wilno/Vilnius, as with a non-Nazi right-wing Germany with it's eyes on Memel, it would be in Stalin's best interest to play buddy-buddy with Lithuania until the opportunity for doing what he basically did IOTL (granted, this time, he may have more, yet not major, support in the Baltics due to the German threat) arises.
I suspect that a more bog-standard right-wing German government would not be willing to give Stalin a blank cheque to annex the Baltics, not least because it would damage the position of the local German population and end their hopes for a sphere of influence in the region. Hitler signed them over because he had painted himself into a corner and was desperate for a guarantee of Soviet nonintervention against his territorial ambitions in the short-term, and a less reckless government is unlikely to place itself in such a position.
I agree with @RedSword12 here, the Baltics were seen by many in Germany as their most natural sphere of influence, a by-product of the region's long ties to the Teutonic Order and the Hanseatic League, and Germany wanting to expand their, or at least bring them into their sphere, predates both the Nazis as well as even the German Empire. What I'd expect is Germany helping promote the dictatorial tendencies in the Baltics and, in exchange for Memel, perhaps forcing Poland to cede Vilnius at the end of this hypothetical limited war with Germany. Not that Lithuania would be in any position to refuse if Germany demanded it. I also feel that they'd make that sacrifice if it guaranteed their protection from the Soviets and Poland.
There is no limited war with Poland. If Germans wants Poland to ceede territory they must destroy them like they did IOTL and Vilnius would be captured by USSR once Soviets join invasion.
I don't agree with this. If the Germans can occupy the 1914 territories--and, at the most extreme, Warsaw--then Poland would make peace. There is simply no benefit to dragging out the war, and the Polish government was too smart to think otherwise. A peace deal, especially a limited one (which they could negotiate in the event of an earlier armistice) would only see them lose territory. If they tried to hold out till the last scrap of territory fell, it would damn Poland since such a war would not only make the government seem tyrannical, but would decimate the Polish armed forces to a point that they would likely immediately face invasion by the Soviets and be unable to fight back. If the government refused to make peace while Germany occupied most of the country, I would very easily see a revolution to topple the government and establish peace.
If Germany offers a limited peace, especially one which guarantees Poland's Eastern border (or, at the very least, guarantees the new German-Polish border), then it would allow Poland to focus more on their Eastern border and fortify against the Soviets.
Pomerania and Silesia is what they wanted, it seems that late Weimar Republic non-Nazi right began to slowly accept loss of Poznań/Posen, of course above scenario is also likely but without Western guarantees Sanacja would not fight unwinnable way.
The thing is, modern Lithuania had never trusted Poland in the first place. During the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth the Lithuanians polonised themselves, and once their national revival appeared, they started seeing Poland as a threat to their national self-awareness, and saw "polish-speaking Lithuanians" (present also within Lithuania without Vilnius Region) as a major threat for the nation. Any alliance with Poland was for Lithuania out of question. As for the Little Entente, it was only Czechoslovakia the one who disliked the Poles. Romania on other hand, was friendly to Poland... due to a mutual fear Romania had with Poland toward the Soviet Union. Czechoslovakia was too prosoviet even for its official ally.
As for the discussion about France and Britain not declaring the war upon Germany... it might indeed be that way. If Germany doesn't desire a total domination over Europe, then the west won't care. Now, would Poland choose to fight in spite of that? It depends. In OTL the initial demands of Hitler were only about Danzig, the extraterritorial highway between Germany proper and East Prussia, and the polish membership in the anti-comintern pact. All of that with him guaranteeing that Germany renounces the claims to the Pomerelia as a whole. If France and Britain show absolutely no interest (not even artificial) in opposing the Germans, then Poland might agree to such german demands. However, in OTL Hitler wanted to have Poland on his side, because he had an ambition for a war against the Soviet Union. If in TTL Germany isn't as "ambitious" and reduces its desires to merely the revision of Versailles, then it's likely that Germany wil straightaway demand all of the lands lost in Versailles. In that case, Poland will fight even without the western allies.
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While the western guarantees did play the role in encouraging the Poles to resist, Beck used to (politely but nonetheless) refuse the german demands already in January 1939. Sanacja overestimated Poland's strength.
Yes, they would, because otherwise they'll lose power due to internal unrest and would only slow down destruction of Poland anyway (salami tactics instead of instant conquest). Poland would be like modern Palestine.
Nope. After experience of partitions (these were not all happening at the same time and also started with loss of "Corridor") Poles would fight for every inch, as loss of independence would be inevitable anyway.
OTL path wasn't inevitable even with 1919 POD. I don't that whatever Germany would had seeked destruction of Poland. Annexation of some places surely but hardly destruction.
People believe too much that those of that time were just like us. It is not a moral category. This is how the Germans wanted to destroy the Polish nation, drang nach osten is not Hitler's creation.
The Pomeranian and Greater Poland lands were originally Polish, and yet the Germans claimed rights over them. You think they will stop after absorbing these lands. After 20 years and the destruction of Polishness in these lands, the Germans will soon make claims against Warsaw itself, because they will say that it was within the borders of the Kingdom of Prussia before the peace in Tilsit.
The Pomeranian and Greater Poland lands were originally Polish, and yet the Germans claimed rights over them. You think they will stop after absorbing these lands. After 20 years and the destruction of Polishness in these lands, the Germans will soon make claims against Warsaw itself, because they will say that it was within the borders of the Kingdom of Prussia before the peace in Tilsit.
Drang nach Osten indeed predates Hitler, but what, precisely, it meant, changed a great deal depending on the one interpreting it. It varied between a sphere of influence, to allies, to domination, to extermination.
Pomerania was neither Polish nor German originally, it was Pomeranian, a distinct culture which was subsumed by both the Germans AND the Poles. Going on a basis of who "originally" held a land is also an impractical way of judging ownership since the original cultures have long ceased to exist or have evolved into a modern form. By that basis, the Irish should conquer Britain and France and reinstate Celtic Gaul.
The point I am trying to make is just that, while naked imperialism certainly played a part in the German policies towards Poland, it was not the sole deciding factor, and treating a nation and a people as one mind with one goal of baseless expansion ignores the dangers which make monsters like Hitler possible. "Destroy Poland" is not written into Germany's DNA; it may be hard to.imagine, given the horrors unleashed on Poland in our timeline, but there are indeed compromise points located between absolute victory of either side.