What if Ferdinand Lived?

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

What would have happened if the assassination of franz ferdinand still happened, but ferdinand survived? Let's say the gun jammed or he was shot in the shoulder or something. Would his survival change anything? Would ww1 still happen?
And if it did, would ww1 play out the same way?

 

[Mark E.]

Would ww1 still happen?
And if it did, would ww1 play out the same way?

The second decade of the 20th century offers many PODs for history. A shorter WWI, no Bolshevik revolution, no collapse of the German economy in 1923 or no Hitler. Even if the Titanic did not sink, survivors of a luxury liner would have influence. A different WWI rewrites history.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

Obviously, WWI as we know it does not happen. Before the July Crisis there were no imminent sparks for a European conflict. Perhaps the most pertinent crisis looming was Irish Home Rule. This does not rule out a subsequent crisis generating such a conflict since there were a number of potential triggers, but not with the same cause, the same lead-up, and perhaps not even the same lineups. Also remember that Franz Ferdinand was committed to avoiding general war, he was open in stating that he did not believe that A-H could survive such a war. Also remember that as Inspector General of the Army he was a significant voice in policy, and of course he could become Emperor anytime. His survival and the potential for some type of Irish disturbance or even civil war are two factors that will alter any course towards general European war in 1914/15.

 

[Hammerbolt]

I'm sure WWI would still happen. While much would depend on how charitable Ferdinand would feel, you still have an assassination atempt, carried out by "servian agents", that (now) only didn't kill him by sheer luck, at a time Serbian-Austrian relations were very stretched. That alone is casus beli. I notice the OP doesn't mention if his wife Sophie survives as well. If she dies, I'd lay money we're on for the war. If she survives. wounded or not, Franz will still be pi$$ed. I'd say we still get the war, with maybe some variationt of +- a few weeks of when it starts. How it develops, specially after Italy joins the allies vs Austria, and when latter on things start to really go sour.

 

[Aguss]

The war would still happen, but the problem is whether it stays the same.

For every year that the war is delayed, Russia will be more powerful, the bases of a superpower that competes against the USA have already been built with French loans. (Austria-Hungary should also be mentioned, it was growing very quickly as well and in a few years it would be hot on the heels of France)

Geopolitics would say that the United Kingdom would remain neutral if it considers that France - Russia (and probably Italy) and Germany - Austria-Hungary (and probably Ottomans) are equal in strength.

A mutual destruction that leaves continental Europe weakened and licking its wounds without having to do anything is best for the British.
I wouldn't be surprised if they fund both sides just to prolong the war, or fund the side that looks like they're going to lose to avoid a quick defeat. And when everyone is weakened, the UK will impose a generous peace, where the winner obtains reparations or some territorial claims, but it will not be enough to be a European hegemon.

On the other hand, if Russia is very powerful, perhaps the UK will be forced to participate on the German side due to geopolitics. It's not that strange, the UK and France (enemies during the Napoleonic era) allied themselves against Russia in the Crimean War. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

I'm sure WWI would still happen. While much would depend on how charitable Ferdinand would feel, you still have an assassination atempt, carried out by "servian agents", that (now) only didn't kill him by sheer luck, at a time Serbian-Austrian relations were very stretched. That alone is casus beli. I notice the OP doesn't mention if his wife Sophie survives as well. If she dies, I'd lay money we're on for the war. If she survives. wounded or not, Franz will still be pi$$ed. I'd say we still get the war, with maybe some variationt of +- a few weeks of when it starts. How it develops, specially after Italy joins the allies vs Austria, and when latter on things start to really go sour.

Yeah sorry about that. Yeah the duchess dies. U see this is the point of divergence of my own alternate timeline and I wanted to know what you guys think would have happened so I can make it more plausible. Thanks for ur input! 👍

 

[Hammerbolt]

Yeah sorry about that. Yeah the duchess dies. U see this is the point of divergence of my own alternate timeline and I wanted to know what you guys think would have happened so I can make it more plausible. Thanks for ur input! 👍

Yeah... no way this doesn't start rolling hard. If anything I expect the original demands/ultimatum to be even worse. Assuming there even is one, and Ferdinand doesn't simply go "My name is Ferdinand, you killed my wife. Prepare to die" on Serbia, and just declares war.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

Yeah... no way this doesn't start rolling hard. If anything I expect the original demands/ultimatum to be even worse. Assuming there even is one, and Ferdinand doesn't simply go "My name is Ferdinand, you killed my wife. Prepare to die" on Serbia, and just declares wai

Yeah... no way this doesn't start rolling hard. If anything I expect the original demands/ultimatum to be even worse. Assuming there even is one, and Ferdinand doesn't simply go "My name is Ferdinand, you killed my wife. Prepare to die" on Serbia, and just declares war.

Maybe ww1 starts a lot earlier? Maybe it doesn't become a global conflict? Perhaps instead of one giant global conflict, a series of smaller, contained conflicts break out instead. Like a third balkan war or second Russo-Japanese war, something like that.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Maybe ww1 starts a lot earlier? Maybe it doesn't become a global conflict? Perhaps instead of one giant global conflict, a series of smaller, contained conflicts break out instead. Like a third balkan war or second Russo-Japanese war, something like that.

You can't start it much earler, tbh. The (failed) atempt was in June 28, original ultimatum was issued on 23 July, Austria declared war on the 28th. You might shave a couple of weeks off this, but not much. Remember you still need to send letters by messenger/train, etc, then wait a couple of days for replies, then the "oh yeah?! then f**k!" takes a couple days more...

As for global, that was a result of the network of aliances, political aspirations, arrogance and old national grudges. Once the ball starts rolling we're off again...

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

You can't start it much earler, tbh. The (failed) atempt was in June 28, original ultimatum was issued on 23 July, Austria declared war on the 28th. You might shave a couple of weeks off this, but not much. Remember you still need to send letters by messenger/train, etc, then wait a couple of days for replies, then the "oh yeah?! then f**k!" takes a couple days more...

As for global, that was a result of the network of aliances, political aspirations, arrogance and old national grudges. Once the ball starts rolling we're off again...

Ah, I see. Again, thanks for the input!👍